Future Preparedness Fund Proposal: Funding, Investment Areas, and National Assembly Oversight

As the semiconductor industry improves, raising the likelihood that tax revenue will exceed expectations, the Korean government is moving to establish a Future Response Fund that would set aside part of the additional tax revenue to finance long-term investment. The central idea is to invest fiscal capacity generated during boom periods in the foundations for future growth rather than exhaust it entirely on short-term spending.

However, as of September 2, 2026, the proposal and policy direction must be distinguished from finalized laws and budgets. The fund’s actual launch date, total size, annual contribution amount, and detailed programs will be finalized only after the relevant legislation is enacted and the National Assembly reviews its fund management plan.

What Is the Future Response Fund?

The Future Response Fund is a fiscal fund proposal intended to set aside part of the revenue collected when tax receipts exceed the original budget and use it for projects that enhance the economy’s long-term productivity and fiscal capacity to respond to shocks.

The intent of the government’s explanation can be divided into three parts.

1. Converting boom-period tax revenue into long-term investment: Tax revenue increased by booms in specific industries, such as semiconductors, would be used to strengthen the foundations for growth rather than for one-off spending.
2. Buffering fluctuations in revenue: It would establish a financial buffer to reduce fiscal shocks when industry conditions deteriorate and tax revenue declines.
3. Strengthening potential growth: It would invest in long-term projects responding to population decline, slowing productivity, and regional disparities.

Potential growth refers to the rate of growth that can be achieved by utilizing labor, capital, and productivity without causing significant inflationary pressure. Several institutions have forecast that Korea’s potential growth rate will decline over the long term, but figures for the 2040s and other periods vary depending on assumptions about demographics, productivity, and investment.

How Additional Tax Revenue Would Flow into the Fund

Additional tax revenue does not mean that every tax receipt collected above expectations would automatically be deposited into the fund’s account. A legal basis for the funding and budget and settlement procedures are required.

Under the National Finance Act, national funds cannot be established and operated at the government’s discretion without a legal basis. Even if the fund is established, its annual fund management plan and settlement of accounts will be subject to review by the National Assembly.

Has the Size of the Fund Been Finalized?

The figures currently being discussed should not be treated as finalized government numbers. The media and markets have presented differing projections, including KRW 60 trillion to KRW 70 trillion or around KRW 100 trillion, depending on semiconductor performance, the scale of the increase in corporate tax revenue, and the contribution period.

These figures may vary significantly depending on the following conditions.

• How long semiconductor prices and corporate profits remain elevated
• When corporate earnings actually translate into corporate tax payments
• Tax revenue shortfalls in other industries and tax categories
• How much of the additional tax revenue is allocated to debt repayment or other spending
• Whether the fund is built in a single year or accumulated over several years
• Whether investment returns are included in the fund’s size

Accordingly, comparisons of the fund’s size must distinguish among the total funding target, annual transfers, actual accumulated balance, and program expenditures. Until an official bill and fund management plan are disclosed, it is difficult to regard any single amount as a finalized target.

Where Would It Invest?

The broad direction presented by the government is closer to building the foundations for future growth than to stimulating short-term consumption.

In advanced industries, small modular reactors, space and aviation, and quantum technology have been mentioned as candidates alongside AI. However, the fact that a particular technology has been mentioned is different from the fact that a budget has actually been allocated to it as a fund program. The final recipients must be confirmed through the bill, program plans, and National Assembly review materials.

There may also be calls to include the climate and energy transition as a separate priority area. Power grids and climate adaptation are linked to industrial competitiveness, but if the scope of investment is expanded too broadly, the fund could become a substitute for the general budget.

Is It the Same as a Sovereign Wealth Fund?

The Future Response Fund and a sovereign wealth fund are not the same concept.

• A fiscal fund is a national fiscal mechanism that manages revenue and expenditure for a specific public purpose.
• A sovereign wealth fund generally refers to an investment organization that seeks long-term returns by investing national assets in domestic and overseas financial assets and other instruments.
• Korea Investment Corporation KIC is an institution that manages assets entrusted to it from foreign exchange reserves, public funds, and other sources.

Even if a professional institution invests the Future Response Fund’s surplus funds in stocks or bonds, the fund as a whole does not automatically become a sovereign wealth fund. The distinguishing criteria are who owns the assets, under which law they are managed, and how the investment returns are used.

Even when management is entrusted to an external professional institution, permitted assets, risk limits, foreign exchange risk, fees, responsible investment standards, and responsibility for losses must be determined in advance. Because stock investment involves both the possibility of returns and the risk of losing principal, program funds to be spent in the short term must be separated from funds to be invested over the long term.

How Would the National Assembly Exercise Oversight?

Although a fund’s purpose and resource management are separated from the general account, it is not money outside the National Assembly’s oversight. The legislation providing the basis for establishing the fund, the annual fund management plan, and the settlement of accounts are subject to review by the National Assembly.

The issue is how much authority the government would have to adjust detailed expenditures after the plan has been approved. Because the National Finance Act provides certain amendment procedures and exceptions, not every change requires the same level of National Assembly approval. The specific level of control will depend on the restrictions included in the new legislation and fund management plan.

To improve transparency, at least the following information should be disclosed regularly.

• The method for calculating transferred resources by tax category
• Allocations and actual expenditures by program
• The share of surplus funds by asset class and investment returns
• Performance relative to benchmarks and risk levels
• Reasons for selecting, changing, or terminating programs
• Results of reviews for overlap with existing fiscal programs
• Results of external evaluations and audits

Risks That Will Determine Sustainability

Dependence on Semiconductors Could Be Repeated in the Fund’s Resources

Problems may arise during an industry downturn if a fund created from a semiconductor boom is treated as a stable source of financing. This is because long-term spending commitments remain even when tax revenue declines. Expanding permanent mandatory spending based on temporary tax revenue should be avoided.

It Could Merely Repackage Existing Programs

Youth, regional development, research and development, and education are already supported through the general account and multiple funds. If only the stated funding source for existing programs changes to the Future Response Fund, the additional growth effect will be limited. It is necessary to verify not only whether programs are new but also whether they are more efficient than existing policies.

The Investment Mandate Could Become Excessively Broad

If worthwhile programs continue to be added, the fund’s priorities will become unclear. To prevent the fund from becoming a second general account supporting every policy, eligible and excluded areas should be clearly defined in legislation or operating principles.

Asset Management and Policy Implementation Operate on Different Timelines

Industrial and educational investment requires a long period, while financial markets can move sharply even over short periods. If investment asset prices fall when program funding is needed, losses may have to be realized. The proportions of safe and risky assets should be adjusted to match the expected timing of expenditures.

Performance and Termination Criteria Must Come First

An easily overlooked part of the fund debate is not what to support, but when a program will be judged a success or failure. Because a fund can easily come to treat its own continued existence as an objective after it is established, evaluation rules should be set at the outset.

The following framework would be useful for assessing effectiveness.

A review deadline for the fund itself could also be considered. Its continued necessity could be assessed at regular intervals, contribution rates could be reduced automatically when revenue conditions deteriorate, and programs without demonstrated results could be denied extensions.

Official Documents to Check Going Forward

To determine the final form of the Future Response Fund, it is more accurate to review the following documents in order rather than relying on the terminology used in announcements.

1. The bill establishing the fund and providing the legal basis for its resources
2. Review reports and amendments from the National Assembly’s deliberation process
3. Annual fund management plans
4. Program-specific budget explanatory materials and performance plans
5. Settlement reports and the results of the National Assembly’s settlement review
6. Surplus fund management guidelines and disclosures by entrusted institutions

Investment areas announced by the government represent policy direction, passage of legislation establishes the fund’s legal foundation, and approval of the fund management plan determines the actual authority to collect and spend funds in the relevant year. Distinguishing among these three stages helps prevent projections that have not yet been finalized from being mistaken for policies already under implementation.