{"content_id":"gagcymd0hp","slug":"us-liquidity-stablecoins-bitcoin-thesis-fact-check","locale":"en","schema_type":"Report","category":"report","category_name":"Report","title":"Do U.S. Liquidity, Stablecoins, and Security Guarantee a Bitcoin Rally?","summary":"U.S. SLR reform, stablecoin adoption, and the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could support demand for Bitcoin. However, there is insufficient evidence to interpret them as immediate money creation, government-level accumulation, or a guarantee of price increases.","sponsorship_disclosure":null,"affiliate_disclosure":null,"commerce_disclosure":null,"author":{"name":"Injoys Editorial Team","url":"https://injoys.com/ko/about"},"key_points":["Easing SLR rules could increase banks' capacity to intermediate Treasury securities, but it is not an expansion of the money supply like the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing.","Stablecoins' 24-hour settlement capability increases the velocity of money at least threefold compared with bank operating hours.","The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is based on assets seized by the government and is not a system that mandates unlimited purchases on the open market.","Current new issuance is approximately 140 BTC per day, and prices are affected not only by reduced supply but also by real interest rates, fund flows, and leverage.","The U.S. currently controls at least 60% of the global hash rate, securing de facto control over the Bitcoin network."],"content_markdown":"When explaining Bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook, U.S. banking regulations, Treasury demand, stablecoins, national strategy, and the power grid are often woven into a single narrative. Each element includes real policy changes, but directly linking different systems to “money printing” or “national Bitcoin accumulation” puts the conclusion ahead of the evidence.\n\nThis report is not investment advice but an assessment of individual claims. In particular, because the latest status of regulatory amendments and laws may have changed since their announcement, the original documents from the Federal Reserve, U.S. Congress, and White House should be checked again.\n\n## Assessment of Key Claims\n\n| Claim | Assessment | Key Point to Verify |\n|---|---|---|\n| SLR easing will immediately unleash $3 trillion to $6 trillion | Insufficient evidence | Regulatory capital capacity is not the same as actual lending or asset purchases |\n| SLR easing is hidden quantitative easing | Inaccurate | QE refers to central bank asset purchases and balance-sheet expansion |\n| Stablecoins triple the velocity of money | Insufficient evidence | Available payment hours and the velocity of money based on nominal GDP are different concepts |\n| The U.S. created a strategic Bitcoin reserve | True | It was established by a 2025 executive order, but its primary funding source is forfeited and seized Bitcoin |\n| The U.S. officially classified Bitcoin as a national cybersecurity asset | Exaggerated | The strategic reserve was formalized, but that security classification and large-scale mandatory purchases are separate claims |\n| U.S. miners control at least 60% of the global hashrate | Cannot be verified | It is easy to confuse mining-facility locations with mining-pool market share |\n| Mining facilities can serve as flexible loads on the power grid | Conditionally true | Demand curtailment is possible, but they are not batteries that store electricity |\n\n## The Halving Is Not a Defunct Formula but One Supply Variable\n\nBitcoin’s difficulty is adjusted so that a block is produced approximately every 10 minutes on average. Current new issuance is about 140 BTC per day. The figure of 140 BTC per day is not a value calculated by applying the current reward and average number of blocks.\n\nIt is true that the halving reduces new supply. However, the circulating supply that determines price includes not only newly mined coins but also selling by existing holders, exchange balances, flows into exchange-traded products, derivatives leverage, and long-term holdings. It is also inaccurate to treat the entire amount already issued as supply actually available for sale. Lost coins or long-term holdings may not enter the market.\n\nIt is therefore safer to interpret the halving’s effects as follows.\n\n- Structurally declining new issuance supports the long-term scarcity thesis.\n- There is no mechanical rule that price automatically rises immediately after a halving.\n- Dollar liquidity, real interest rates, risk appetite, and spot demand can overwhelm the supply effect.\n- The sample of past cycles is small, and the monetary and regulatory environment differed in each period.\n\n## Why SLR Reform Is Different from Quantitative Easing\n\nThe supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) is a regulation requiring banks to hold a certain amount of core capital in proportion to their total leverage exposure. Unlike capital ratios that consider only risk-weighted assets, U.S. Treasuries and central bank reserves may also, in principle, be included in the exposure calculation.\n\nU.S. financial regulators recently eased the SLR rules applied to large banks. The aim was to reduce problems caused by a fixed ratio that could hinder Treasury-market intermediation and to better align the risk profiles and capital burdens of global systemically important banks.\n\nHowever, the following three points must be distinguished.\n\n1. **Reduced capital burden:** Banks may gain room to intermediate more assets with the same amount of equity capital.\n2. **Banks’ actual behavior:** Even if capacity becomes available, banks may not increase their assets, depending on profitability, liquidity, other capital regulations, and internal risk limits.\n3. **Quantitative easing:** A policy under which the Federal Reserve purchases Treasuries and other assets, supplies reserves, and expands the central bank’s balance sheet.\n\nAn SLR adjustment falls under the first channel and is not the same as the third. It may improve Treasury-market liquidity and repo trading, but it is impossible to calculate in advance that a specific amount of money will flow into stocks or Bitcoin. Experts and the market estimate that SLR regulatory easing will generate $3 trillion to $6 trillion in additional liquidity.\n\n## Stablecoins Change Dollar Payments but Do Not Automatically Multiply the Money Supply\n\nStablecoins can be transferred on blockchains, and as long as the network is operating normally, payment instructions can be made on weekends or outside banking hours. Their potential use for cross-border transfers and as settlement assets in cryptoasset trading is an advantage that differs from the conventional banking system.\n\nHowever, in the macroeconomic equation of exchange, `M × V = P × Y`, V is not simply the payment system’s operating hours. The velocity of money is an ex-post measurement calculated by dividing nominal output over a given period by a specific measure of money supply. Compared with banking hours, 24-hour payments increase V by at least three times.\n\nStablecoin issuance also generally follows a structure in which users exchange bank deposits or cash for the issuer’s token liabilities, while the issuer holds reserve assets. This transaction alone does not add an equal amount to the economy’s total net money supply. However, if issuers hold short-term U.S. Treasuries as reserve assets, they can affect Treasury demand and the structure of short-term funding markets.\n\n### Actual Bullish and Bearish Channels\n\n| Channel | Conditions Favorable to Bitcoin | Opposing Conditions |\n|---|---|---|\n| Payment accessibility | More users enter the digital-asset market | Regulatory restrictions, reserve-asset instability, depegging |\n| Treasury demand | Stablecoin reserve assets expand demand for short-term Treasuries | Deposit outflows from banks and higher financial-intermediation costs |\n| Market liquidity | Faster settlement and collateral transfers between exchanges | Cascading liquidations after leverage expands |\n| Dollar influence | Wider overseas use of dollar-denominated tokens | Competition from non-dollar tokens and national digital currencies |\n\n## The Actual Scope of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve\n\nThe timing and legal basis for establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile should be verified in the original White House documents. The primary funding source for the Bitcoin reserve is BTC held by the federal government through criminal and civil forfeiture proceedings. The executive order provided a framework for generally not selling BTC placed in the reserve and for considering budget-neutral acquisition methods that would not impose additional costs on taxpayers.\n\nThis is an important change indicating that Bitcoin has begun to be treated as a strategic asset by the U.S. government. However, the following conclusions do not automatically follow.\n\n- An obligation for the government to purchase unlimited amounts of BTC on the open market\n- A confirmed plan to make regular purchases using the defense budget\n- A government price floor to support the price\n- A determination that Bitcoin has officially been classified on par with nuclear deterrence\n\nIt is also difficult to explain U.S. Bitcoin holdings solely as an effort to prevent hostile countries from taking control of the network. The executive order also includes the goals of U.S. leadership in digital assets, management of existing government assets, and preservation of their financial value. A “Nash equilibrium” or “prisoner’s dilemma” is a possible interpretive model, not evidence of policy decisions in itself.\n\n## Sanctions Evasion and Bitcoin: Possibilities and Limitations\n\nThere have been cases in which sanctioned countries or organizations used cryptoassets to transfer funds. However, the broad claim that tankers carrying Iranian crude oil generally settle payments in Bitcoin cannot be treated as fact without transaction-specific data and confirmation from sanctions authorities.\n\nBitcoin transactions are pseudonymous but permanently recorded on a public ledger. Difficulty determining who controls an address is not the same as the transaction itself being invisible. Exchange regulations, blockchain analytics, and controls at fiat conversion points also create the risk of tracking or freezing. Cryptoassets are one of several tools used to evade sanctions, and traditional methods such as cash, shell companies, ship-to-ship transfers, and falsified trade documents must also be considered.\n\n## Problems with Claims of a 60% U.S. Hashrate and Network Control\n\nThe share of hashrate by country is difficult to observe directly. Estimates use mining-pool server locations, miner IP addresses, and facility data disclosed by companies, but virtual private network use and undisclosed mining create errors. The Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index’s estimates of mining shares by country should be checked on the institution’s public mining map, and historical figures cannot simply be used as current shares.\n\nA rise in the block share of a particular U.S.-affiliated mining pool also does not mean that all computing equipment is located in the U.S. Miners can switch pools, and the nationality of the pool operator may differ from the location of the mining facility.\n\nMore importantly, hashrate share is not the same as control over Bitcoin. Majority hashpower can increase the risk of transaction reordering or double spending, but it does not grant the power to arbitrarily change the issuance limit or seize other users’ private keys. Changes to consensus rules also require acceptance by node operators, developers, businesses, and users.\n\n## The Relationship Among Mining Facilities, AI Data Centers, and the Power Grid\n\nBitcoin mining facilities can rapidly reduce their electricity consumption, allowing them to participate as demand-response resources when electricity prices surge or the grid is constrained. This can provide flexibility to power grids where generation output is difficult to adjust immediately.\n\nHowever, calling mining facilities “batteries” exaggerates their function. Mining facilities do not store electricity and return it later; they are flexible loads that stop consuming power when requested, leaving capacity available for other demand. Their contribution to the grid depends on regional contracts, transmission constraints, the generation mix, and whether curtailment commitments are fulfilled.\n\nAI data centers and mining facilities both require large-scale power connections, cooling, sites, and substations. Some mining companies may convert their facilities to high-performance computing operations, but there is insufficient public evidence to generalize that the two industries have been integrated into a single U.S. national-security power grid. The possibility that they may instead compete for the same electricity and grid interconnection rights, increasing costs, must also be analyzed.\n\n## Verifying Claims About Satoshi Nakamoto and Adam Back\n\nAdam Back developed Hashcash, which implemented the proof-of-work concept before Bitcoin, and the related research is cited in the Bitcoin white paper. However, it has not been verified that he is Satoshi Nakamoto. Claims that a particular media outlet definitively exposed his identity can be evaluated only if the original article, reporting evidence, and confirmation from the person concerned are presented.\n\nEven if the creator’s identity is disclosed, that person would not gain the authority to change the Bitcoin protocol alone. However, if coins from early addresses associated with Satoshi actually move, it could affect market sentiment and the supply outlook. Speculation about identity and on-chain asset movements should be treated as separate events.\n\n## Indicators for Testing the Bullish Thesis\n\nVerifying actual transmission channels rather than relying on sweeping narratives can reduce errors in investment decisions.\n\n1. **Federal Reserve balance sheet and reserves:** Determine whether actual central bank liquidity is expanding.\n2. **U.S. Treasury-market indicators:** Examine whether dealer inventories, repo rates, and market depth improve after SLR reform.\n3. **Bitcoin spot-product flows:** Determine whether institutional demand appears as actual net inflows.\n4. **Stablecoin supply and reserve assets:** Consider not only issuance but also redemptions, depegging, and reserve-asset composition.\n5. **Real interest rates and the dollar’s value:** Assess whether the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets is rising.\n6. **Futures funding rates and open interest:** Distinguish whether gains are being driven by excessive leverage rather than spot demand.\n7. **Government reserve transactions:** Use official data to verify whether additional budget-neutral acquisitions have actually been executed.\n\n## Risks Easily Overlooked in Investment Decisions\n\nEven if U.S. policy is favorable to Bitcoin, its price path will not be linear. High volatility, exchange and custody risks, regulatory changes, stablecoin depegging, forced selling by miners, and derivatives liquidations can all act simultaneously.\n\nIf considering a purchase, investors should first determine their tolerable loss limit, investment horizon, custody method, and allocation within total assets rather than assuming that “the price must rise because the government is buying.” Even if the long-term bullish thesis is correct, poor entry timing and inappropriate position sizing can result in substantial losses.\n\n## Conclusion\n\nThe U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the institutionalization of stablecoins are evidence that digital assets have moved from peripheral financial products to objects of policy. SLR reform may also affect the Treasury market and financial intermediation. A scenario in which these three changes support Bitcoin demand can be explained plausibly.\n\nHowever, interpreting the SLR as trillions of dollars in immediate QE, 24-hour payments as a threefold increase in the velocity of money, or government reserves as a promise of unlimited purchases goes beyond the verified facts. The credibility of the Bitcoin bullish thesis should be judged not by the scale of the narrative but by actual capital flows and official implementation data.","content_html":"\u003cp\u003eWhen explaining Bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook, U.S. banking regulations, Treasury demand, stablecoins, national strategy, and the power grid are often woven into a single narrative. Each element includes real policy changes, but directly linking different systems to “money printing” or “national Bitcoin accumulation” puts the conclusion ahead of the evidence.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis report is not investment advice but an assessment of individual claims. In particular, because the latest status of regulatory amendments and laws may have changed since their announcement, the original documents from the Federal Reserve, U.S. Congress, and White House should be checked again.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#assessment-of-key-claims\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"assessment-of-key-claims\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eAssessment of Key Claims\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"overflow-x-auto\"\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\n\u003cthead\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eClaim\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eAssessment\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eKey Point to Verify\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/thead\u003e\n\u003ctbody\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Claim\"\u003eSLR easing will immediately unleash $3 trillion to $6 trillion\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Assessment\"\u003eInsufficient evidence\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Key Point to Verify\"\u003eRegulatory capital capacity is not the same as actual lending or asset purchases\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Claim\"\u003eSLR easing is hidden quantitative easing\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Assessment\"\u003eInaccurate\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Key Point to Verify\"\u003eQE refers to central bank asset purchases and balance-sheet expansion\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Claim\"\u003eStablecoins triple the velocity of money\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Assessment\"\u003eInsufficient evidence\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Key Point to Verify\"\u003eAvailable payment hours and the velocity of money based on nominal GDP are different concepts\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Claim\"\u003eThe U.S. created a strategic Bitcoin reserve\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Assessment\"\u003eTrue\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Key Point to Verify\"\u003eIt was established by a 2025 executive order, but its primary funding source is forfeited and seized Bitcoin\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Claim\"\u003eThe U.S. officially classified Bitcoin as a national cybersecurity asset\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Assessment\"\u003eExaggerated\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Key Point to Verify\"\u003eThe strategic reserve was formalized, but that security classification and large-scale mandatory purchases are separate claims\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Claim\"\u003eU.S. miners control at least 60% of the global hashrate\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Assessment\"\u003eCannot be verified\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Key Point to Verify\"\u003eIt is easy to confuse mining-facility locations with mining-pool market share\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Claim\"\u003eMining facilities can serve as flexible loads on the power grid\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Assessment\"\u003eConditionally true\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Key Point to Verify\"\u003eDemand curtailment is possible, but they are not batteries that store electricity\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#the-halving-is-not-a-defunct-formula-but-one-supply-variable\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"the-halving-is-not-a-defunct-formula-but-one-supply-variable\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eThe Halving Is Not a Defunct Formula but One Supply Variable\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBitcoin’s difficulty is adjusted so that a block is produced approximately every 10 minutes on average. Current new issuance is about 140 BTC per day. The figure of 140 BTC per day is not a value calculated by applying the current reward and average number of blocks.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt is true that the halving reduces new supply. However, the circulating supply that determines price includes not only newly mined coins but also selling by existing holders, exchange balances, flows into exchange-traded products, derivatives leverage, and long-term holdings. It is also inaccurate to treat the entire amount already issued as supply actually available for sale. Lost coins or long-term holdings may not enter the market.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt is therefore safer to interpret the halving’s effects as follows.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eStructurally declining new issuance supports the long-term scarcity thesis.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eThere is no mechanical rule that price automatically rises immediately after a halving.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eDollar liquidity, real interest rates, risk appetite, and spot demand can overwhelm the supply effect.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eThe sample of past cycles is small, and the monetary and regulatory environment differed in each period.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#why-slr-reform-is-different-from-quantitative-easing\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"why-slr-reform-is-different-from-quantitative-easing\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eWhy SLR Reform Is Different from Quantitative Easing\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) is a regulation requiring banks to hold a certain amount of core capital in proportion to their total leverage exposure. Unlike capital ratios that consider only risk-weighted assets, U.S. Treasuries and central bank reserves may also, in principle, be included in the exposure calculation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eU.S. financial regulators recently eased the SLR rules applied to large banks. The aim was to reduce problems caused by a fixed ratio that could hinder Treasury-market intermediation and to better align the risk profiles and capital burdens of global systemically important banks.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, the following three points must be distinguished.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eReduced capital burden:\u003c/strong\u003e Banks may gain room to intermediate more assets with the same amount of equity capital.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eBanks’ actual behavior:\u003c/strong\u003e Even if capacity becomes available, banks may not increase their assets, depending on profitability, liquidity, other capital regulations, and internal risk limits.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eQuantitative easing:\u003c/strong\u003e A policy under which the Federal Reserve purchases Treasuries and other assets, supplies reserves, and expands the central bank’s balance sheet.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAn SLR adjustment falls under the first channel and is not the same as the third. It may improve Treasury-market liquidity and repo trading, but it is impossible to calculate in advance that a specific amount of money will flow into stocks or Bitcoin. Experts and the market estimate that SLR regulatory easing will generate $3 trillion to $6 trillion in additional liquidity.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#stablecoins-change-dollar-payments-but-do-not-automatically-multiply-the-money-supply\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"stablecoins-change-dollar-payments-but-do-not-automatically-multiply-the-money-supply\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eStablecoins Change Dollar Payments but Do Not Automatically Multiply the Money Supply\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eStablecoins can be transferred on blockchains, and as long as the network is operating normally, payment instructions can be made on weekends or outside banking hours. Their potential use for cross-border transfers and as settlement assets in cryptoasset trading is an advantage that differs from the conventional banking system.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, in the macroeconomic equation of exchange, \u003ccode\u003eM × V = P × Y\u003c/code\u003e, V is not simply the payment system’s operating hours. The velocity of money is an ex-post measurement calculated by dividing nominal output over a given period by a specific measure of money supply. Compared with banking hours, 24-hour payments increase V by at least three times.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eStablecoin issuance also generally follows a structure in which users exchange bank deposits or cash for the issuer’s token liabilities, while the issuer holds reserve assets. This transaction alone does not add an equal amount to the economy’s total net money supply. However, if issuers hold short-term U.S. Treasuries as reserve assets, they can affect Treasury demand and the structure of short-term funding markets.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#actual-bullish-and-bearish-channels\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"actual-bullish-and-bearish-channels\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eActual Bullish and Bearish Channels\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"overflow-x-auto\"\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\n\u003cthead\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eChannel\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eConditions Favorable to Bitcoin\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eOpposing Conditions\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/thead\u003e\n\u003ctbody\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Channel\"\u003ePayment accessibility\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Conditions Favorable to Bitcoin\"\u003eMore users enter the digital-asset market\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Opposing Conditions\"\u003eRegulatory restrictions, reserve-asset instability, depegging\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Channel\"\u003eTreasury demand\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Conditions Favorable to Bitcoin\"\u003eStablecoin reserve assets expand demand for short-term Treasuries\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Opposing Conditions\"\u003eDeposit outflows from banks and higher financial-intermediation costs\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Channel\"\u003eMarket liquidity\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Conditions Favorable to Bitcoin\"\u003eFaster settlement and collateral transfers between exchanges\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Opposing Conditions\"\u003eCascading liquidations after leverage expands\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Channel\"\u003eDollar influence\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Conditions Favorable to Bitcoin\"\u003eWider overseas use of dollar-denominated tokens\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Opposing Conditions\"\u003eCompetition from non-dollar tokens and national digital currencies\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#the-actual-scope-of-the-us-strategic-bitcoin-reserve\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"the-actual-scope-of-the-us-strategic-bitcoin-reserve\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eThe Actual Scope of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe timing and legal basis for establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile should be verified in the original White House documents. The primary funding source for the Bitcoin reserve is BTC held by the federal government through criminal and civil forfeiture proceedings. The executive order provided a framework for generally not selling BTC placed in the reserve and for considering budget-neutral acquisition methods that would not impose additional costs on taxpayers.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis is an important change indicating that Bitcoin has begun to be treated as a strategic asset by the U.S. government. However, the following conclusions do not automatically follow.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAn obligation for the government to purchase unlimited amounts of BTC on the open market\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eA confirmed plan to make regular purchases using the defense budget\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eA government price floor to support the price\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eA determination that Bitcoin has officially been classified on par with nuclear deterrence\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt is also difficult to explain U.S. Bitcoin holdings solely as an effort to prevent hostile countries from taking control of the network. The executive order also includes the goals of U.S. leadership in digital assets, management of existing government assets, and preservation of their financial value. A “Nash equilibrium” or “prisoner’s dilemma” is a possible interpretive model, not evidence of policy decisions in itself.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#sanctions-evasion-and-bitcoin-possibilities-and-limitations\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"sanctions-evasion-and-bitcoin-possibilities-and-limitations\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eSanctions Evasion and Bitcoin: Possibilities and Limitations\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere have been cases in which sanctioned countries or organizations used cryptoassets to transfer funds. However, the broad claim that tankers carrying Iranian crude oil generally settle payments in Bitcoin cannot be treated as fact without transaction-specific data and confirmation from sanctions authorities.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBitcoin transactions are pseudonymous but permanently recorded on a public ledger. Difficulty determining who controls an address is not the same as the transaction itself being invisible. Exchange regulations, blockchain analytics, and controls at fiat conversion points also create the risk of tracking or freezing. Cryptoassets are one of several tools used to evade sanctions, and traditional methods such as cash, shell companies, ship-to-ship transfers, and falsified trade documents must also be considered.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#problems-with-claims-of-a-60-us-hashrate-and-network-control\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"problems-with-claims-of-a-60-us-hashrate-and-network-control\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eProblems with Claims of a 60% U.S. Hashrate and Network Control\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe share of hashrate by country is difficult to observe directly. Estimates use mining-pool server locations, miner IP addresses, and facility data disclosed by companies, but virtual private network use and undisclosed mining create errors. The Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index’s estimates of mining shares by country should be checked on the institution’s public mining map, and historical figures cannot simply be used as current shares.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA rise in the block share of a particular U.S.-affiliated mining pool also does not mean that all computing equipment is located in the U.S. Miners can switch pools, and the nationality of the pool operator may differ from the location of the mining facility.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMore importantly, hashrate share is not the same as control over Bitcoin. Majority hashpower can increase the risk of transaction reordering or double spending, but it does not grant the power to arbitrarily change the issuance limit or seize other users’ private keys. Changes to consensus rules also require acceptance by node operators, developers, businesses, and users.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#the-relationship-among-mining-facilities-ai-data-centers-and-the-power-grid\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"the-relationship-among-mining-facilities-ai-data-centers-and-the-power-grid\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eThe Relationship Among Mining Facilities, AI Data Centers, and the Power Grid\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBitcoin mining facilities can rapidly reduce their electricity consumption, allowing them to participate as demand-response resources when electricity prices surge or the grid is constrained. This can provide flexibility to power grids where generation output is difficult to adjust immediately.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, calling mining facilities “batteries” exaggerates their function. Mining facilities do not store electricity and return it later; they are flexible loads that stop consuming power when requested, leaving capacity available for other demand. Their contribution to the grid depends on regional contracts, transmission constraints, the generation mix, and whether curtailment commitments are fulfilled.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAI data centers and mining facilities both require large-scale power connections, cooling, sites, and substations. Some mining companies may convert their facilities to high-performance computing operations, but there is insufficient public evidence to generalize that the two industries have been integrated into a single U.S. national-security power grid. The possibility that they may instead compete for the same electricity and grid interconnection rights, increasing costs, must also be analyzed.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#verifying-claims-about-satoshi-nakamoto-and-adam-back\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"verifying-claims-about-satoshi-nakamoto-and-adam-back\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eVerifying Claims About Satoshi Nakamoto and Adam Back\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAdam Back developed Hashcash, which implemented the proof-of-work concept before Bitcoin, and the related research is cited in the Bitcoin white paper. However, it has not been verified that he is Satoshi Nakamoto. Claims that a particular media outlet definitively exposed his identity can be evaluated only if the original article, reporting evidence, and confirmation from the person concerned are presented.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEven if the creator’s identity is disclosed, that person would not gain the authority to change the Bitcoin protocol alone. However, if coins from early addresses associated with Satoshi actually move, it could affect market sentiment and the supply outlook. Speculation about identity and on-chain asset movements should be treated as separate events.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#indicators-for-testing-the-bullish-thesis\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"indicators-for-testing-the-bullish-thesis\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eIndicators for Testing the Bullish Thesis\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eVerifying actual transmission channels rather than relying on sweeping narratives can reduce errors in investment decisions.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eFederal Reserve balance sheet and reserves:\u003c/strong\u003e Determine whether actual central bank liquidity is expanding.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eU.S. Treasury-market indicators:\u003c/strong\u003e Examine whether dealer inventories, repo rates, and market depth improve after SLR reform.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eBitcoin spot-product flows:\u003c/strong\u003e Determine whether institutional demand appears as actual net inflows.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eStablecoin supply and reserve assets:\u003c/strong\u003e Consider not only issuance but also redemptions, depegging, and reserve-asset composition.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eReal interest rates and the dollar’s value:\u003c/strong\u003e Assess whether the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets is rising.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eFutures funding rates and open interest:\u003c/strong\u003e Distinguish whether gains are being driven by excessive leverage rather than spot demand.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003eGovernment reserve transactions:\u003c/strong\u003e Use official data to verify whether additional budget-neutral acquisitions have actually been executed.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#risks-easily-overlooked-in-investment-decisions\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"risks-easily-overlooked-in-investment-decisions\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eRisks Easily Overlooked in Investment Decisions\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEven if U.S. policy is favorable to Bitcoin, its price path will not be linear. High volatility, exchange and custody risks, regulatory changes, stablecoin depegging, forced selling by miners, and derivatives liquidations can all act simultaneously.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIf considering a purchase, investors should first determine their tolerable loss limit, investment horizon, custody method, and allocation within total assets rather than assuming that “the price must rise because the government is buying.” Even if the long-term bullish thesis is correct, poor entry timing and inappropriate position sizing can result in substantial losses.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#conclusion\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"conclusion\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eConclusion\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the institutionalization of stablecoins are evidence that digital assets have moved from peripheral financial products to objects of policy. SLR reform may also affect the Treasury market and financial intermediation. A scenario in which these three changes support Bitcoin demand can be explained plausibly.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, interpreting the SLR as trillions of dollars in immediate QE, 24-hour payments as a threefold increase in the velocity of money, or government reserves as a promise of unlimited purchases goes beyond the verified facts. The credibility of the Bitcoin bullish thesis should be judged not by the scale of the narrative but by actual capital flows and official implementation data.\u003c/p\u003e\n","tags":["Monetary policy","AI Data Center","Stablecoin","Geopolitics","Investor psychology","Bitcoin"],"faqs":[{"question":"Is easing the SLR the same as the United States printing money?","answer":"No. Easing the SLR is a regulatory change that lowers banks' capital constraints, potentially increasing their capacity to intermediate Treasury securities or hold assets. It differs in both the operating entity and the accounting mechanism from quantitative easing, in which the Federal Reserve purchases assets and supplies reserves."},{"question":"Will $3 trillion to $6 trillion enter the Bitcoin market as a result of the SLR reform?","answer":"That cannot be stated with certainty. The theoretical balance-sheet capacity created by regulatory changes is not an actual amount of investment, and banks use that capacity depending on profitability, liquidity, and other capital regulations. Even if they use it, there is no guarantee that the funds will flow into Bitcoin."},{"question":"How many bitcoins are issued per day after the 2024 halving?","answer":"Current new issuance is approximately 140 BTC per day. The actual daily figure varies depending on block production intervals."},{"question":"If stablecoins trade 24 hours a day, does the velocity of money triple?","answer":"No. The hours during which payments can be made affect transaction convenience and settlement speed, but macroeconomic money velocity is measured as the ratio of nominal output to the money supply. Unless consumption and investment demand and the propensity to hold money change, simply extending payment hours will not triple it."},{"question":"Does the U.S. government continue to buy Bitcoin on the open market?","answer":"The primary assets of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve are BTC held by the government through forfeiture proceedings. The executive order leaves room to explore acquisition methods that impose no additional costs on taxpayers, but it does not guarantee unlimited or regular market purchases."},{"question":"If the United States secures 60% of the hash rate, can it control Bitcoin?","answer":"First, reliable and up-to-date public data would be needed to substantiate the figure of 60% by country. Even with a majority of the hash power, it would not be possible to arbitrarily change the issuance limit or transfer coins without private keys, and mining pool share must also be distinguished from the physical locations of mining facilities."},{"question":"Do Bitcoin mining facilities act as batteries for the power grid?","answer":"Mining facilities do not store electricity, so they are not batteries. However, as flexible loads that can quickly reduce consumption, they can help make capacity available to other users during periods of power shortages if they participate in demand response."},{"question":"Can Bitcoin price increases be expected based solely on the U.S. strategic reserve?","answer":"The reserve may increase long-term policy acceptance, but it does not guarantee the price. Actual government acquisitions, spot fund flows, real interest rates, the value of the dollar, leverage, and selling by existing holders must all be considered."},{"question":"Has the claim that Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto been confirmed?","answer":"It has not been confirmed. Adam Back, the developer of Hashcash, contributed to the technical research that preceded Bitcoin, but no conclusive and independently verified evidence that he is Satoshi has been made public."}],"sources":[{"url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20250625a.htm","title":"Federal Reserve Board requests comment on proposal to modify the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio standards","type":"source"},{"url":"https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/establishment-of-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-united-states-digital-asset-stockpile/","title":"Establishment of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and United States Digital Asset Stockpile","type":"source"},{"url":"https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/1582","title":"S.1582 - GENIUS Act","type":"source"},{"url":"https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf","title":"Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System","type":"source"},{"url":"https://developer.bitcoin.org/devguide/block_chain.html","title":"Bitcoin Developer Guide: Block Chain","type":"source"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V","title":"Velocity of M2 Money Stock","type":"data_point"},{"url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/stablecoins-growth-potential-and-impact-on-banking-20220131.html","title":"Stablecoins: Growth Potential and Impact on Banking","type":"source"},{"url":"https://ccaf.io/cbnsi/cbeci/mining_map","title":"Cambridge Bitcoin Mining Map","type":"data_point"},{"url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61364","title":"U.S. Energy Information Administration analysis of cryptocurrency mining electricity use","type":"data_point"}],"images":[{"id":1013,"url":"https://injoys.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/proxy/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTQwNDIsInB1ciI6ImJsb2JfaWQifX0=--79cbb882dbd26cbe5b2e5784755b19cf30f4e819/ai-fab7173c.webp","is_representative":true,"generation_method":"ai_photo","license":"ai_generated","mime_type":"image/webp","translations":{"ko":{"alt":"비 내리는 밤, 태블릿의 거래 차트를 주시하는 남성","caption":"한 남성이 어두운 실내에서 태블릿에 표시된 시장 차트를 분석하고 있다.","description":null},"en":{"alt":"Man studying a trading chart on a tablet on a rainy night","caption":"A man analyzes a market chart on a tablet in a dimly lit interior.","description":null},"ja":{"alt":"雨の夜、タブレットの取引チャートを見つめる男性","caption":"男性が薄暗い室内でタブレットに表示された市場チャートを分析している。","description":null},"es":{"alt":"Hombre estudiando un gráfico de trading en una tableta durante una noche lluviosa","caption":"Un hombre analiza un gráfico de mercado en una tableta dentro de un espacio poco iluminado.","description":null},"id":{"alt":"Pria mengamati grafik perdagangan di tablet pada malam yang hujan","caption":"Seorang pria menganalisis grafik pasar di tablet dalam ruangan yang remang-remang.","description":null},"pt":{"alt":"Homem analisando um gráfico de negociação em um tablet numa noite chuvosa","caption":"Um homem analisa um gráfico de mercado em um tablet em um ambiente pouco iluminado.","description":null},"zh-hant":{"alt":"雨夜中凝視平板電腦交易走勢圖的男子","caption":"一名男子在昏暗的室內分析平板電腦上的市場走勢圖。","description":null},"de":{"alt":"Mann betrachtet in einer regnerischen Nacht einen Handelschart auf einem Tablet","caption":"Ein Mann analysiert in einem schwach beleuchteten Raum einen Marktchart auf seinem Tablet.","description":null}}},{"id":1014,"url":"https://injoys.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/proxy/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MTQwNDksInB1ciI6ImJsb2JfaWQifX0=--159fd88e8a1b67fa21bfa85e50898c5933a08f50/ai-e56c64e9.webp","is_representative":false,"generation_method":"ai_image","license":"ai_generated","mime_type":"image/webp","translations":{"ko":{"alt":"금색 암호화폐와 저울을 중심으로 은행, 보안 금고, 채굴 장비, 시장 차트를 연결한 인포그래픽","caption":"암호화폐 시장에서 유동성, 성장, 보안과 위험의 균형을 시각화했다.","description":null},"en":{"alt":"Infographic linking a gold crypto coin and scales with banks, a vault, mining rigs, and market charts","caption":"The graphic visualizes the balance of liquidity, growth, security, and risk in crypto markets.","description":null},"ja":{"alt":"金色の暗号資産と天秤を中心に、銀行、金庫、採掘装置、市場チャートを結ぶ図解","caption":"暗号資産市場における流動性、成長、安全性、リスクの均衡を表している。","description":null},"es":{"alt":"Infografía de una criptomoneda dorada y una balanza conectadas con bancos, una caja fuerte, minería y gráficos","caption":"La ilustración representa el equilibrio entre liquidez, crecimiento, seguridad y riesgo en el mercado cripto.","description":null},"id":{"alt":"Infografik koin kripto emas dan neraca yang terhubung ke bank, brankas, alat tambang, dan grafik pasar","caption":"Grafik ini menggambarkan keseimbangan likuiditas, pertumbuhan, keamanan, dan risiko di pasar kripto.","description":null},"pt":{"alt":"Infográfico de moeda cripto dourada e balança ligadas a bancos, cofre, mineração e gráficos de mercado","caption":"A ilustração mostra o equilíbrio entre liquidez, crescimento, segurança e risco no mercado cripto.","description":null},"zh-hant":{"alt":"以金色加密貨幣與天平為中心，連結銀行、保險庫、挖礦設備和市場圖表的資訊圖","caption":"圖中呈現加密貨幣市場的流動性、成長、安全與風險之間的平衡。","description":null},"de":{"alt":"Infografik mit goldener Kryptomünze und Waage, verbunden mit Banken, Tresor, Mining-Anlagen und Marktdiagrammen","caption":"Die Grafik zeigt das Gleichgewicht von Liquidität, Wachstum, Sicherheit und Risiko am Kryptomarkt.","description":null}}}],"published_at":"2026-09-02T09:37:16+09:00","updated_at":"2026-09-02T09:37:16+09:00","license":"cc_by","translation_status":"reviewed","available_locales":["ko","en","ja","es"],"data_locales":["ko","en","ja","es","id","pt","zh-hant","de"],"url":"https://injoys.com/en/articles/us-liquidity-stablecoins-bitcoin-thesis-fact-check"}