{"content_id":"omwbeyhivm","slug":"hurricane-forecast-cone-2026-inland-warnings","locale":"en","schema_type":"Article","category":"knowledge_base","category_name":"Knowledge Base","title":"2026 Hurricane Forecast Cone: Inland Watches and Warnings","summary":"NHC's official 2026 track forecast cone displays inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings. The cone shows uncertainty in the storm center's path, so check separate forecasts for strong winds, heavy rain, and flooding risks.","sponsorship_disclosure":null,"affiliate_disclosure":null,"commerce_disclosure":null,"author":{"name":"Injoys Editorial Team","url":"https://injoys.com/ko/about"},"key_points":["The official 2026 cone adds tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas of the United States.","The official cone is designed to encompass about two-thirds of past track forecast errors.","The 2026 experimental cone uses ellipses to reflect errors in the storm's speed and direction.","Strong winds, heavy rain, and flood damage can occur outside the cone.","Seasonal outlooks do not forecast landfall in a specific area, so assess local risks using the latest warnings."],"content_markdown":"The U.S. National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) official 2026 cone adds inland watches and warnings. The cone shows uncertainty in the storm center’s track, not the size of the storm. Wind and flooding risks outside the cone must be checked in separate forecasts.\n\nThe figures and graphics here are based on NHC documents for the 2026 hurricane season.\n\n## What changed in the 2026 forecast cone\n\nThe official 2026 map shows inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings. The previous official map showed U.S. coastal watches and warnings. The inland display was tested in 2024 and 2025. The change is described in [NHC’s 2026 products and services notice](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/2026NHCNewProductsAndServices.pdf).\n\nThe display covers the U.S. mainland, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The entire 5-day cone uses the same shading. Diagonal stripes appear where a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning overlap. The changes are also described in [NOAA’s March 24, 2026 announcement](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/national-hurricane-center-to-issue-new-forecast-cone-graphics-for-2026-hurricane-season).\n\n| Map marking | Meaning |\n| --- | --- |\n| Red warning area | Hurricane warning |\n| Pink watch area | Hurricane watch |\n| Blue warning area | Tropical storm warning |\n| Yellow watch area | Tropical storm watch |\n| Pink and blue diagonal stripes | Hurricane watch and tropical storm warning in effect at the same time |\n| Cone shading | Uncertainty about the storm center’s forecast track |\n\nThe colors convey different information from track probabilities. Watch and warning areas show expected wind risks. Their boundaries do not have to match the cone’s boundary. The color definitions follow [NHC’s graphics explanation](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml).\n\n## What the forecast cone shows\n\nThe cone is the area where the center of a tropical cyclone may travel. It does not show the size of the whole storm or the area that may be affected. The center may also move outside the cone. NOAA’s [Understand Forecast Information](https://www.noaa.gov/understand-forecast-information) explains:\n\n\u003e The cone does NOT represent the size of the storm in any way.\n\u003e\n\u003e NOAA, Understand Forecast Information\n\nThe official cone is formed by enclosing circles placed at each forecast position. The radius of each circle is based on past track forecast errors. The errors used for 2026 are from 2021 through 2025. The circle for each forecast time encompasses **about two-thirds** of past errors.\n\n| Time from the forecast reference time | Atlantic circle radius | Eastern and central North Pacific circle radius |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| 12 hours | 25 nautical miles | 25 nautical miles |\n| 24 hours | 39 nautical miles | 37 nautical miles |\n| 36 hours | 49 nautical miles | 48 nautical miles |\n| 48 hours | 62 nautical miles | 56 nautical miles |\n| 60 hours | 77 nautical miles | 66 nautical miles |\n| 72 hours | 95 nautical miles | 78 nautical miles |\n| 96 hours | 134 nautical miles | 106 nautical miles |\n| 120 hours | 200 nautical miles | 138 nautical miles |\n\nThese figures come from [NHC’s 2026 cone definition](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml). A radius is the distance measured from the forecast center position. It cannot be read as the probability of strong winds in a particular city. Nor does it assign the same probability to every point inside the cone.\n\n### Calculation example: the difference between radius and storm size\n\nThe 2026 Atlantic 48-hour forecast circle has a radius of 62 nautical miles. Its diameter is therefore 62 nautical miles × 2 = 124 nautical miles. This calculation gives only the diameter of a circle representing track error. It does not give the diameter of the actual storm or the radius of its strong winds.\n\n## Comparing the official and experimental cones\n\nThe experimental 2026 cone is provided separately from the official cone. It is a different change from adding inland watches and warnings to the official map. The experimental map changes the shape and criteria used to show track error. The method is described in [NHC’s experimental cone explanation](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/experimental/cone/).\n\n| Comparison | Official 2026 cone | Experimental 2026 cone |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Basic shape | Circles at forecast positions | Ellipses at forecast positions |\n| Error shown | Distance between a forecast position and the actual center position | Error along the direction of travel and error to either side |\n| Statistical basis | About the 67th percentile of absolute track errors over the past 5 years | 90th percentile of directional errors over the past 5 years |\n| Inclusion level described by NHC | About two-thirds of centers fall within each circle | About 90% of centers fall within each ellipse |\n| Product status | Official forecast product | Experimental product provided alongside the official product |\n\nError along the direction of travel measures how much faster or slower the storm moved than forecast. Side-to-side error measures how far it moved to either side of the forecast track. An ellipse represents the difference between these two directions. A difference in area between the maps should therefore not be interpreted as a change in storm size.\n\nThe experimental map uses a separate **90% inclusion level**. This is not the probability of damage in a particular city. Nor does it guarantee that the storm’s entire track will always remain within the ellipses. NHC notes that the experimental product may be delayed during testing.\n\n## How watches and warnings differ\n\nA watch means dangerous weather conditions are possible. A warning means those conditions are expected. Here, Watch is distinguished from Warning; this does not directly apply the names of South Korea’s weather alerts.\n\n| Category | Meaning | Time frame |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Tropical storm watch | Tropical-storm-force winds are possible | Usually within 48 hours |\n| Tropical storm warning | Tropical-storm-force winds are expected | Usually within 36 hours |\n| Hurricane watch | Hurricane conditions are possible | About 48 hours before the expected start of tropical-storm-force winds |\n| Hurricane warning | Hurricane conditions are expected | About 36 hours before the expected start of tropical-storm-force winds |\n\nTropical-storm-force sustained winds are 39 to 73 miles per hour. Hurricane-force sustained winds are at least 74 miles per hour. The time frame for a hurricane warning is based on when tropical-storm-force winds arrive. It is set to allow preparation before winds strengthen.\n\nPink and blue diagonal stripes do not indicate contradictory alerts. They mean tropical storm conditions are expected, but hurricane conditions are also possible. Being outside the cone is not a reason to ignore this marking. The definitions and time frames follow the [U.S. National Weather Service’s explanation of watches and warnings](https://www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane-ww).\n\n## Which sources show risks outside the cone\n\nWind and water forecasts should be checked separately for risks outside the cone. Strong winds can extend far from the storm center. Flooding from heavy rain can occur inland. Water damage can continue even after a hurricane is downgraded.\n\n| What to check | Sources to consult | Distinctions to make when interpreting them |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Chance of strong winds at a specific location | Wind Speed Probabilities | The wind-speed threshold and forecast period shown on the map |\n| When strong winds will begin | Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds | The earliest reasonable arrival time and the most likely arrival time |\n| Risk of seawater being pushed onto land | Storm surge watches, warnings, and inundation maps | Water risk separate from strong-wind warnings |\n| Heavy rain and inland flooding | Rainfall forecasts and local flood and flash flood warnings | Risks in areas away from the center’s track |\n| Overall impacts by area | Local weather office’s Hurricane Local Statement | Expected local impacts, including wind, flooding, and tornadoes |\n\nWind probability maps show the chance that winds will reach a specified speed during a set period. They measure something different from the cone’s 67%. The functions of these products are described in [NHC’s graphics explanation](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml).\n\nThe earliest reasonable arrival time is a more conservative measure than the most likely arrival time. NHC says the chance of winds beginning before that time is 10% or less. That time is therefore not an absolute deadline for safety. The definition is given in [NHC’s guidance on wind arrival times](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/arrivaltimes/).\n\nLocal weather office information should also be read to understand impacts in a particular area. A Hurricane Local Statement summarizes expected impacts. It covers flooding and tornadoes, among other risks, as well as wind. Its role is described in the [U.S. National Weather Service’s explanation of local forecast products](https://www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane-ww).\n\n## Situations and common misunderstandings\n\nWhether an area is inside the cone does not, by itself, determine its risk. The cone and watches or warnings answer different questions. The table below applies the definitions explained above to different situations.\n\n| Situation shown on the map | Possible interpretation | Additional information to check |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Outside the cone but under an inland warning | Dangerous winds may be expected even if the center passes elsewhere | Warning type and explanation of local impacts |\n| Inside the cone but not under a watch or warning | Within the area of track uncertainty | Forecast time, wind probabilities, and subsequent watches or warnings |\n| Experimental cone wider than official cone | Shape and statistical criteria differ | Whether both maps show the same storm and advisory |\n| Hurricane weakens to a tropical storm | Wind classification has dropped | Whether heavy rain, flood, or storm surge warnings remain in effect |\n| Forecast landfall of the center is still some time away | Winds may begin before the center arrives | Arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds |\n\nReading the area outside the cone as a safe zone is a common misunderstanding. A narrower cone does not necessarily mean less damage. Storm size and rainfall risk must be assessed using separate information. [NOAA’s guidance on interpreting forecasts](https://www.noaa.gov/understand-forecast-information) emphasizes these distinctions.\n\n## Information to preserve when sharing a map\n\nWhen sharing a map or saving its data, keep its issuance details with it. The image’s appearance alone may not establish whether it shows the same forecast. The items below are criteria for sharing a map drawn from NHC’s product descriptions.\n\n| Item to preserve | Why it is needed |\n| --- | --- |\n| Storm name and year | Distinguish images of past events from current forecasts |\n| Advisory number and issuance time | Avoid mixing different forecasts |\n| Time zone shown on the map | Avoid mistaking arrival times for times in another region |\n| Official or experimental product designation | Avoid confusing the 67% and 90% criteria |\n| Full watch and warning names and legend | Avoid confusing watches with warnings when only colors are retained |\n| Source URL and original image | Check subsequent corrections or changes to watches and warnings |\n\nA wind arrival map uses one time zone based on the storm’s location. The map may retain that time zone even if the forecast track crosses into another one. The displayed time should therefore not automatically be treated as local time at the arrival location. This approach is described in [NHC’s arrival time product explanation](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/arrivaltimes/).\n\nMore than one watch or warning status can apply to the same area. Saving only one in a dataset would therefore lose the meaning of the diagonal stripes. NHC’s TCV distinguishes watch and warning types by code. The code structure is described in the [Tropical Cyclone Watch/Warning explanation](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tcv/).\n\nOn rare occasions, a preliminary cone without inland watches and warnings may be posted first. In that case, a map showing only coastal watches and warnings is provided temporarily. The absence of inland markings alone should not be taken to mean that watches or warnings have been lifted. This exception is noted in [NHC’s 2026 changes notice](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/2026NHCNewProductsAndServices.pdf).\n\n## Why it still matters in October\n\nThe Atlantic hurricane season officially runs **through November 30**. A seasonal outlook predicts activity levels for the season as a whole. It does not forecast whether a storm will make landfall in a particular area. This distinction is stated in [NOAA’s update to its 2026 seasonal outlook](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-maintains-prediction-for-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season).\n\nThe U.S. National Weather Service’s Mobile/Pensacola September climate summary also stresses the need to prepare for October. The document is dated October 1, 2026. Its point is that a period of low activity does not, by itself, establish that the risk has fallen for the rest of the season. The original is available in [September 2026 Climate Summaries](https://www.weather.gov/index.php/mob/September2026climatesummaries).\n\nAssess actual local risks using the latest NHC forecast and local weather office watches and warnings. Check instructions from local authorities when deciding whether to evacuate. The activity level in a seasonal outlook cannot be read as a personal probability of safety.\n\n## Frequently asked questions\n\n### Were inland watches and warnings introduced in 2026?\n\nInland watches and warnings themselves were not introduced in 2026. The 2026 change is their display on the official cone map. Existing inland watches and warnings were available from local weather offices and in TCV data, among other sources.\n\n### Does being inside the cone mean the hurricane will pass directly overhead?\n\nBeing inside the cone does not mean the center will necessarily pass over a location. The cone represents uncertainty in the center’s track. Check wind probability maps for the chance of strong winds at a specific location.\n\n### Has the experimental cone replaced the official cone?\n\nThe experimental cone does not replace the official cone in 2026. Both products are provided. The experimental product’s 90% criterion should not be read as the criterion for the official product.\n\n### Can flooding occur outside the cone?\n\nFlooding can occur outside the cone. The areas affected by heavy rain and storm surge differ from the center’s track. Check rainfall forecasts and local flood warnings separately.\n\n### Does the 36-hour period for a hurricane warning mean time until landfall?\n\nThe 36-hour period for a hurricane warning does not refer to when the center will make landfall. It is based on the expected arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. The period is set to allow preparation before strong winds begin.\n\n### Does this explanation stop applying after November 30?\n\nNovember 30 is the official end of the Atlantic hurricane season. It is not the day the explanations of the cone and watches and warnings cease to apply. Circle radii change from year to year, however, and should be checked in the documents for the relevant year. (Verified 2026 circle radii by forecast time, Atlantic / eastern and central North Pacific: 12 hours 25/25 nautical miles, 24 hours 39/37 nautical miles, 36 hours 49/48 nautical miles, 48 hours 62/56 nautical miles, 60 hours 77/66 nautical miles, 72 hours 95/78 nautical miles · source nhc.noaa.gov · checked 2026-10-20)","content_html":"\u003cp\u003eThe U.S. National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) official 2026 cone adds inland watches and warnings. The cone shows uncertainty in the storm center’s track, not the size of the storm. Wind and flooding risks outside the cone must be checked in separate forecasts.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe figures and graphics here are based on NHC documents for the 2026 hurricane season.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#what-changed-in-the-2026-forecast-cone\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"what-changed-in-the-2026-forecast-cone\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eWhat changed in the 2026 forecast cone\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe official 2026 map shows inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings. The previous official map showed U.S. coastal watches and warnings. The inland display was tested in 2024 and 2025. The change is described in \u003ca href=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/2026NHCNewProductsAndServices.pdf\"\u003eNHC’s 2026 products and services notice\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe display covers the U.S. mainland, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The entire 5-day cone uses the same shading. Diagonal stripes appear where a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning overlap. The changes are also described in \u003ca href=\"https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/national-hurricane-center-to-issue-new-forecast-cone-graphics-for-2026-hurricane-season\"\u003eNOAA’s March 24, 2026 announcement\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"overflow-x-auto\"\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\n\u003cthead\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eMap marking\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eMeaning\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/thead\u003e\n\u003ctbody\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Map marking\"\u003eRed warning area\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Meaning\"\u003eHurricane warning\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Map marking\"\u003ePink watch area\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Meaning\"\u003eHurricane watch\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Map marking\"\u003eBlue warning area\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Meaning\"\u003eTropical storm warning\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Map marking\"\u003eYellow watch area\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Meaning\"\u003eTropical storm watch\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Map marking\"\u003ePink and blue diagonal stripes\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Meaning\"\u003eHurricane watch and tropical storm warning in effect at the same time\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Map marking\"\u003eCone shading\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Meaning\"\u003eUncertainty about the storm center’s forecast track\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe colors convey different information from track probabilities. Watch and warning areas show expected wind risks. Their boundaries do not have to match the cone’s boundary. The color definitions follow \u003ca href=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml\"\u003eNHC’s graphics explanation\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#what-the-forecast-cone-shows\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"what-the-forecast-cone-shows\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eWhat the forecast cone shows\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe cone is the area where the center of a tropical cyclone may travel. It does not show the size of the whole storm or the area that may be affected. The center may also move outside the cone. NOAA’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.noaa.gov/understand-forecast-information\"\u003eUnderstand Forecast Information\u003c/a\u003e explains:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe cone does NOT represent the size of the storm in any way.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNOAA, Understand Forecast Information\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe official cone is formed by enclosing circles placed at each forecast position. The radius of each circle is based on past track forecast errors. The errors used for 2026 are from 2021 through 2025. The circle for each forecast time encompasses \u003cstrong\u003eabout two-thirds\u003c/strong\u003e of past errors.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"overflow-x-auto\"\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\n\u003cthead\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eTime from the forecast reference time\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eAtlantic circle radius\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eEastern and central North Pacific circle radius\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/thead\u003e\n\u003ctbody\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Time from the forecast reference time\"\u003e12 hours\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Atlantic circle radius\"\u003e25 nautical miles\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Eastern and central North Pacific circle radius\"\u003e25 nautical miles\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Time from the forecast reference time\"\u003e24 hours\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Atlantic circle radius\"\u003e39 nautical miles\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Eastern and central North Pacific circle radius\"\u003e37 nautical miles\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Time from the forecast reference time\"\u003e36 hours\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Atlantic circle radius\"\u003e49 nautical miles\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Eastern and central North Pacific circle radius\"\u003e48 nautical miles\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Time from the forecast reference time\"\u003e48 hours\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Atlantic circle radius\"\u003e62 nautical miles\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Eastern and central North Pacific circle radius\"\u003e56 nautical miles\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Time from the forecast reference time\"\u003e60 hours\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Atlantic circle radius\"\u003e77 nautical miles\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Eastern and central North Pacific circle radius\"\u003e66 nautical miles\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Time from the forecast reference time\"\u003e72 hours\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Atlantic circle radius\"\u003e95 nautical miles\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Eastern and central North Pacific circle radius\"\u003e78 nautical miles\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Time from the forecast reference time\"\u003e96 hours\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Atlantic circle radius\"\u003e134 nautical miles\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Eastern and central North Pacific circle radius\"\u003e106 nautical miles\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Time from the forecast reference time\"\u003e120 hours\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Atlantic circle radius\"\u003e200 nautical miles\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Eastern and central North Pacific circle radius\"\u003e138 nautical miles\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThese figures come from \u003ca href=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml\"\u003eNHC’s 2026 cone definition\u003c/a\u003e. A radius is the distance measured from the forecast center position. It cannot be read as the probability of strong winds in a particular city. Nor does it assign the same probability to every point inside the cone.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#calculation-example-the-difference-between-radius-and-storm-size\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"calculation-example-the-difference-between-radius-and-storm-size\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eCalculation example: the difference between radius and storm size\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe 2026 Atlantic 48-hour forecast circle has a radius of 62 nautical miles. Its diameter is therefore 62 nautical miles × 2 = 124 nautical miles. This calculation gives only the diameter of a circle representing track error. It does not give the diameter of the actual storm or the radius of its strong winds.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#comparing-the-official-and-experimental-cones\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"comparing-the-official-and-experimental-cones\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eComparing the official and experimental cones\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe experimental 2026 cone is provided separately from the official cone. It is a different change from adding inland watches and warnings to the official map. The experimental map changes the shape and criteria used to show track error. The method is described in \u003ca href=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/experimental/cone/\"\u003eNHC’s experimental cone explanation\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"overflow-x-auto\"\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\n\u003cthead\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eComparison\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eOfficial 2026 cone\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eExperimental 2026 cone\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/thead\u003e\n\u003ctbody\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Comparison\"\u003eBasic shape\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Official 2026 cone\"\u003eCircles at forecast positions\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Experimental 2026 cone\"\u003eEllipses at forecast positions\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Comparison\"\u003eError shown\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Official 2026 cone\"\u003eDistance between a forecast position and the actual center position\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Experimental 2026 cone\"\u003eError along the direction of travel and error to either side\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Comparison\"\u003eStatistical basis\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Official 2026 cone\"\u003eAbout the 67th percentile of absolute track errors over the past 5 years\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Experimental 2026 cone\"\u003e90th percentile of directional errors over the past 5 years\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Comparison\"\u003eInclusion level described by NHC\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Official 2026 cone\"\u003eAbout two-thirds of centers fall within each circle\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Experimental 2026 cone\"\u003eAbout 90% of centers fall within each ellipse\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Comparison\"\u003eProduct status\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Official 2026 cone\"\u003eOfficial forecast product\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Experimental 2026 cone\"\u003eExperimental product provided alongside the official product\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eError along the direction of travel measures how much faster or slower the storm moved than forecast. Side-to-side error measures how far it moved to either side of the forecast track. An ellipse represents the difference between these two directions. A difference in area between the maps should therefore not be interpreted as a change in storm size.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe experimental map uses a separate \u003cstrong\u003e90% inclusion level\u003c/strong\u003e. This is not the probability of damage in a particular city. Nor does it guarantee that the storm’s entire track will always remain within the ellipses. NHC notes that the experimental product may be delayed during testing.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#how-watches-and-warnings-differ\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"how-watches-and-warnings-differ\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eHow watches and warnings differ\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA watch means dangerous weather conditions are possible. A warning means those conditions are expected. Here, Watch is distinguished from Warning; this does not directly apply the names of South Korea’s weather alerts.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"overflow-x-auto\"\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\n\u003cthead\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eCategory\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eMeaning\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eTime frame\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/thead\u003e\n\u003ctbody\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Category\"\u003eTropical storm watch\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Meaning\"\u003eTropical-storm-force winds are possible\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Time frame\"\u003eUsually within 48 hours\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Category\"\u003eTropical storm warning\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Meaning\"\u003eTropical-storm-force winds are expected\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Time frame\"\u003eUsually within 36 hours\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Category\"\u003eHurricane watch\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Meaning\"\u003eHurricane conditions are possible\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Time frame\"\u003eAbout 48 hours before the expected start of tropical-storm-force winds\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Category\"\u003eHurricane warning\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Meaning\"\u003eHurricane conditions are expected\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Time frame\"\u003eAbout 36 hours before the expected start of tropical-storm-force winds\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTropical-storm-force sustained winds are 39 to 73 miles per hour. Hurricane-force sustained winds are at least 74 miles per hour. The time frame for a hurricane warning is based on when tropical-storm-force winds arrive. It is set to allow preparation before winds strengthen.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePink and blue diagonal stripes do not indicate contradictory alerts. They mean tropical storm conditions are expected, but hurricane conditions are also possible. Being outside the cone is not a reason to ignore this marking. The definitions and time frames follow the \u003ca href=\"https://www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane-ww\"\u003eU.S. National Weather Service’s explanation of watches and warnings\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#which-sources-show-risks-outside-the-cone\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"which-sources-show-risks-outside-the-cone\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eWhich sources show risks outside the cone\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWind and water forecasts should be checked separately for risks outside the cone. Strong winds can extend far from the storm center. Flooding from heavy rain can occur inland. Water damage can continue even after a hurricane is downgraded.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"overflow-x-auto\"\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\n\u003cthead\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eWhat to check\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eSources to consult\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eDistinctions to make when interpreting them\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/thead\u003e\n\u003ctbody\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"What to check\"\u003eChance of strong winds at a specific location\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Sources to consult\"\u003eWind Speed Probabilities\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Distinctions to make when interpreting them\"\u003eThe wind-speed threshold and forecast period shown on the map\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"What to check\"\u003eWhen strong winds will begin\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Sources to consult\"\u003eArrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Distinctions to make when interpreting them\"\u003eThe earliest reasonable arrival time and the most likely arrival time\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"What to check\"\u003eRisk of seawater being pushed onto land\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Sources to consult\"\u003eStorm surge watches, warnings, and inundation maps\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Distinctions to make when interpreting them\"\u003eWater risk separate from strong-wind warnings\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"What to check\"\u003eHeavy rain and inland flooding\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Sources to consult\"\u003eRainfall forecasts and local flood and flash flood warnings\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Distinctions to make when interpreting them\"\u003eRisks in areas away from the center’s track\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"What to check\"\u003eOverall impacts by area\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Sources to consult\"\u003eLocal weather office’s Hurricane Local Statement\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Distinctions to make when interpreting them\"\u003eExpected local impacts, including wind, flooding, and tornadoes\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWind probability maps show the chance that winds will reach a specified speed during a set period. They measure something different from the cone’s 67%. The functions of these products are described in \u003ca href=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml\"\u003eNHC’s graphics explanation\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe earliest reasonable arrival time is a more conservative measure than the most likely arrival time. NHC says the chance of winds beginning before that time is 10% or less. That time is therefore not an absolute deadline for safety. The definition is given in \u003ca href=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/arrivaltimes/\"\u003eNHC’s guidance on wind arrival times\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLocal weather office information should also be read to understand impacts in a particular area. A Hurricane Local Statement summarizes expected impacts. It covers flooding and tornadoes, among other risks, as well as wind. Its role is described in the \u003ca href=\"https://www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane-ww\"\u003eU.S. National Weather Service’s explanation of local forecast products\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#situations-and-common-misunderstandings\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"situations-and-common-misunderstandings\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eSituations and common misunderstandings\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhether an area is inside the cone does not, by itself, determine its risk. The cone and watches or warnings answer different questions. The table below applies the definitions explained above to different situations.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"overflow-x-auto\"\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\n\u003cthead\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eSituation shown on the map\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003cth\u003ePossible interpretation\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eAdditional information to check\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/thead\u003e\n\u003ctbody\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Situation shown on the map\"\u003eOutside the cone but under an inland warning\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Possible interpretation\"\u003eDangerous winds may be expected even if the center passes elsewhere\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Additional information to check\"\u003eWarning type and explanation of local impacts\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Situation shown on the map\"\u003eInside the cone but not under a watch or warning\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Possible interpretation\"\u003eWithin the area of track uncertainty\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Additional information to check\"\u003eForecast time, wind probabilities, and subsequent watches or warnings\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Situation shown on the map\"\u003eExperimental cone wider than official cone\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Possible interpretation\"\u003eShape and statistical criteria differ\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Additional information to check\"\u003eWhether both maps show the same storm and advisory\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Situation shown on the map\"\u003eHurricane weakens to a tropical storm\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Possible interpretation\"\u003eWind classification has dropped\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Additional information to check\"\u003eWhether heavy rain, flood, or storm surge warnings remain in effect\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Situation shown on the map\"\u003eForecast landfall of the center is still some time away\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Possible interpretation\"\u003eWinds may begin before the center arrives\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Additional information to check\"\u003eArrival time of tropical-storm-force winds\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eReading the area outside the cone as a safe zone is a common misunderstanding. A narrower cone does not necessarily mean less damage. Storm size and rainfall risk must be assessed using separate information. \u003ca href=\"https://www.noaa.gov/understand-forecast-information\"\u003eNOAA’s guidance on interpreting forecasts\u003c/a\u003e emphasizes these distinctions.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#information-to-preserve-when-sharing-a-map\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"information-to-preserve-when-sharing-a-map\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eInformation to preserve when sharing a map\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhen sharing a map or saving its data, keep its issuance details with it. The image’s appearance alone may not establish whether it shows the same forecast. The items below are criteria for sharing a map drawn from NHC’s product descriptions.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"overflow-x-auto\"\u003e\u003ctable\u003e\n\u003cthead\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eItem to preserve\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003cth\u003eWhy it is needed\u003c/th\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/thead\u003e\n\u003ctbody\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Item to preserve\"\u003eStorm name and year\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Why it is needed\"\u003eDistinguish images of past events from current forecasts\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Item to preserve\"\u003eAdvisory number and issuance time\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Why it is needed\"\u003eAvoid mixing different forecasts\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Item to preserve\"\u003eTime zone shown on the map\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Why it is needed\"\u003eAvoid mistaking arrival times for times in another region\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Item to preserve\"\u003eOfficial or experimental product designation\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Why it is needed\"\u003eAvoid confusing the 67% and 90% criteria\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Item to preserve\"\u003eFull watch and warning names and legend\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Why it is needed\"\u003eAvoid confusing watches with warnings when only colors are retained\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003ctr\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Item to preserve\"\u003eSource URL and original image\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003ctd data-label=\"Why it is needed\"\u003eCheck subsequent corrections or changes to watches and warnings\u003c/td\u003e\n\u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA wind arrival map uses one time zone based on the storm’s location. The map may retain that time zone even if the forecast track crosses into another one. The displayed time should therefore not automatically be treated as local time at the arrival location. This approach is described in \u003ca href=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/arrivaltimes/\"\u003eNHC’s arrival time product explanation\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMore than one watch or warning status can apply to the same area. Saving only one in a dataset would therefore lose the meaning of the diagonal stripes. NHC’s TCV distinguishes watch and warning types by code. The code structure is described in the \u003ca href=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tcv/\"\u003eTropical Cyclone Watch/Warning explanation\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOn rare occasions, a preliminary cone without inland watches and warnings may be posted first. In that case, a map showing only coastal watches and warnings is provided temporarily. The absence of inland markings alone should not be taken to mean that watches or warnings have been lifted. This exception is noted in \u003ca href=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/2026NHCNewProductsAndServices.pdf\"\u003eNHC’s 2026 changes notice\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#why-it-still-matters-in-october\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"why-it-still-matters-in-october\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eWhy it still matters in October\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe Atlantic hurricane season officially runs \u003cstrong\u003ethrough November 30\u003c/strong\u003e. A seasonal outlook predicts activity levels for the season as a whole. It does not forecast whether a storm will make landfall in a particular area. This distinction is stated in \u003ca href=\"https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-maintains-prediction-for-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season\"\u003eNOAA’s update to its 2026 seasonal outlook\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe U.S. National Weather Service’s Mobile/Pensacola September climate summary also stresses the need to prepare for October. The document is dated October 1, 2026. Its point is that a period of low activity does not, by itself, establish that the risk has fallen for the rest of the season. The original is available in \u003ca href=\"https://www.weather.gov/index.php/mob/September2026climatesummaries\"\u003eSeptember 2026 Climate Summaries\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAssess actual local risks using the latest NHC forecast and local weather office watches and warnings. Check instructions from local authorities when deciding whether to evacuate. The activity level in a seasonal outlook cannot be read as a personal probability of safety.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#frequently-asked-questions\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"frequently-asked-questions\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eFrequently asked questions\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#were-inland-watches-and-warnings-introduced-in-2026\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"were-inland-watches-and-warnings-introduced-in-2026\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eWere inland watches and warnings introduced in 2026?\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eInland watches and warnings themselves were not introduced in 2026. The 2026 change is their display on the official cone map. Existing inland watches and warnings were available from local weather offices and in TCV data, among other sources.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#does-being-inside-the-cone-mean-the-hurricane-will-pass-directly-overhead\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"does-being-inside-the-cone-mean-the-hurricane-will-pass-directly-overhead\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eDoes being inside the cone mean the hurricane will pass directly overhead?\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBeing inside the cone does not mean the center will necessarily pass over a location. The cone represents uncertainty in the center’s track. Check wind probability maps for the chance of strong winds at a specific location.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#has-the-experimental-cone-replaced-the-official-cone\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"has-the-experimental-cone-replaced-the-official-cone\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eHas the experimental cone replaced the official cone?\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe experimental cone does not replace the official cone in 2026. Both products are provided. The experimental product’s 90% criterion should not be read as the criterion for the official product.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#can-flooding-occur-outside-the-cone\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"can-flooding-occur-outside-the-cone\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eCan flooding occur outside the cone?\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFlooding can occur outside the cone. The areas affected by heavy rain and storm surge differ from the center’s track. Check rainfall forecasts and local flood warnings separately.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#does-the-36-hour-period-for-a-hurricane-warning-mean-time-until-landfall\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"does-the-36-hour-period-for-a-hurricane-warning-mean-time-until-landfall\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eDoes the 36-hour period for a hurricane warning mean time until landfall?\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe 36-hour period for a hurricane warning does not refer to when the center will make landfall. It is based on the expected arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. The period is set to allow preparation before strong winds begin.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"#does-this-explanation-stop-applying-after-november-30\" class=\"anchor\" id=\"does-this-explanation-stop-applying-after-november-30\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003eDoes this explanation stop applying after November 30?\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNovember 30 is the official end of the Atlantic hurricane season. It is not the day the explanations of the cone and watches and warnings cease to apply. Circle radii change from year to year, however, and should be checked in the documents for the relevant year. (Verified 2026 circle radii by forecast time, Atlantic / eastern and central North Pacific: 12 hours 25/25 nautical miles, 24 hours 39/37 nautical miles, 36 hours 49/48 nautical miles, 48 hours 62/56 nautical miles, 60 hours 77/66 nautical miles, 72 hours 95/78 nautical miles · source nhc.noaa.gov · checked 2026-10-20)\u003c/p\u003e\n","tags":["Torrential rain","Disaster Preparedness","Hurricane"],"faqs":[{"question":"What changed in the official 2026 NHC forecast cone?","answer":"Tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas of the United States will be added to the official map. Areas where a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning overlap will be shown with pink and blue diagonal stripes."},{"question":"Does the forecast cone show the size of a storm?","answer":"The cone shows uncertainty in the path of the storm's center, not the size of the storm. Strong winds and heavy rain can extend beyond the cone."},{"question":"What does the roughly 67% figure for the official cone mean?","answer":"It means the circle at each forecast time contains about two-thirds of past track forecast errors. It does not indicate the probability of damage to a particular city or the probability of strong winds."},{"question":"What data are used to determine the size of the 2026 cone?","answer":"The radii of the official 2026 cone are based on track forecast errors from 2021 through 2025. The radii may differ between the Atlantic and the eastern and central North Pacific."},{"question":"How does the experimental 2026 cone differ from the official cone?","answer":"The experimental cone uses ellipses instead of circles. It accounts separately for errors in movement speed and side-to-side direction. NHC says each ellipse has a center inclusion rate of about 90%."},{"question":"How do watches and warnings differ?","answer":"A watch means dangerous conditions are possible. A warning means those conditions are expected. Tropical storm watches generally apply when conditions are possible within 48 hours, and warnings when they are expected within 36 hours."},{"question":"Does the 36-hour window for a hurricane warning refer to the time of landfall?","answer":"It does not refer to when the storm's center makes landfall. A hurricane warning is issued about 36 hours before tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin."},{"question":"What warning do the pink and blue diagonal stripes indicate?","answer":"A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning are in effect at the same time. This means tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are also possible."},{"question":"Which forecasts should areas outside the cone check?","answer":"They should check the probability and arrival time of strong winds, along with storm surge and rainfall forecasts. Flood warnings and the Hurricane Local Statement from local weather offices also help assess local risks."},{"question":"If inland warnings are not shown on the map, have they been lifted?","answer":"You cannot conclude from the map alone that they have been lifted. In rare cases, a preliminary cone showing only coastal warnings may be posted first. Check the latest local warnings and the final map together."},{"question":"Can a seasonal outlook tell you the risk of landfall in a specific city?","answer":"A seasonal outlook predicts the overall level of activity for the season. It does not forecast landfall in a particular city. Actual local risks should be assessed using the latest track forecasts and warnings."},{"question":"When does the Atlantic hurricane season end?","answer":"The official season runs from June 1 to November 30 each year. October is also part of the season, so low activity earlier in the season alone is no reason to stop preparing."}],"sources":[{"url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/2026NHCNewProductsAndServices.pdf","title":"NHC, National Hurricane Center Products and Services Update for 2026 Hurricane Season","type":"source"},{"url":"https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/national-hurricane-center-to-issue-new-forecast-cone-graphics-for-2026-hurricane-season","title":"NOAA, National Hurricane Center to issue new forecast cone graphics for 2026 hurricane season","type":"source"},{"url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml","title":"NHC, Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone","type":"data_point"},{"url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/experimental/cone/","title":"NHC, National Hurricane Center Experimental Tropical Cyclone Forecast Cone Graphic","type":"source"},{"url":"https://www.noaa.gov/understand-forecast-information","title":"NOAA, Understand Forecast Information","type":"source"},{"url":"https://www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane-ww","title":"NWS, Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks","type":"source"},{"url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml","title":"NHC, Tropical Cyclone Graphical Product Descriptions","type":"source"},{"url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/arrivaltimes/","title":"NHC, Arrival of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Graphics","type":"source"},{"url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tcv/","title":"NHC, Tropical Cyclone Watch/Warning (TCV)","type":"source"},{"url":"https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-maintains-prediction-for-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season","title":"NOAA, NOAA maintains prediction for below-normal Atlantic hurricane season","type":"source"},{"url":"https://www.weather.gov/index.php/mob/September2026climatesummaries","title":"NWS Mobile/Pensacola, September 2026 Climate Summaries","type":"source"}],"images":[{"id":1983,"url":"https://injoys.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/proxy/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MzA0OTMsInB1ciI6ImJsb2JfaWQifX0=--439b3058a30d0718bddbf3a17e55aa47c81b78d0/ai-735c5718.webp","is_representative":true,"generation_method":"ai_photo","license":"ai_generated","mime_type":"image/webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"translations":{"ko":{"alt":"여성이 창문 잠금장치를 잡고 있고, 빗속 거리 옆 창턱의 태블릿에는 폭풍 경로 지도가 보인다.","caption":"예보 원뿔 밖에서도 강풍과 폭우, 침수 위험이 있어 최신 지역 경보를 확인해야 한다.","description":null},"en":{"alt":"A woman holds a window latch as rain falls outside; a tablet on the sill displays a storm forecast map.","caption":"Strong winds, heavy rain and flooding can occur outside the forecast cone, so check the latest local warnings.","description":null},"ja":{"alt":"女性が窓の留め具に手をかけ、雨の降る屋外を見つめる。窓辺のタブレットには暴風雨の予報図が映る。","caption":"予報円の外でも強風や大雨、浸水が起こり得るため、最新の地域警報を確認する必要がある。","description":null},"es":{"alt":"Una mujer sujeta el cierre de una ventana mientras llueve afuera; una tableta muestra un mapa de la tormenta.","caption":"También puede haber vientos fuertes, lluvias intensas e inundaciones fuera del cono de pronóstico; conviene consultar las alertas locales.","description":null},"id":{"alt":"Seorang perempuan memegang pengunci jendela saat hujan turun di luar; tablet menampilkan peta prakiraan badai.","caption":"Angin kencang, hujan lebat, dan banjir dapat terjadi di luar kerucut prakiraan, sehingga peringatan setempat terbaru perlu diperiksa.","description":null},"pt":{"alt":"Uma mulher segura o fecho da janela enquanto chove lá fora; um tablet exibe um mapa de previsão da tempestade.","caption":"Ventos fortes, chuva intensa e inundações podem ocorrer fora do cone de previsão; é preciso consultar os alertas locais mais recentes.","description":null},"zh-hant":{"alt":"女子扶著窗戶鎖扣，窗外正下雨；窗邊的平板顯示風暴預報地圖。","caption":"預報錐範圍外仍可能出現強風、豪雨和淹水，應查看最新的當地警報。","description":null},"de":{"alt":"Eine Frau hält den Fensterriegel fest, während es draußen regnet; ein Tablet zeigt eine Sturmvorhersagekarte.","caption":"Auch außerhalb des Vorhersagekegels drohen starker Wind, heftiger Regen und Überschwemmungen; aktuelle lokale Warnungen sind entscheidend.","description":null}}},{"id":1984,"url":"https://injoys.com/rails/active_storage/blobs/proxy/eyJfcmFpbHMiOnsiZGF0YSI6MzA0OTksInB1ciI6ImJsb2JfaWQifX0=--b94e63e74998e4707aa3c1de3c4fcdc4de676aa6/ai-6e24f0cd.webp","is_representative":false,"generation_method":"ai_semi","license":"ai_generated","mime_type":"image/webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"translations":{"ko":{"alt":"파란 우비를 입은 남성이 차 옆에서 침수된 도로와 배수구로 쏟아지는 물을 바라본다.","caption":"예보 원뿔은 침수 위험을 나타내지 않으므로 별도 예보를 확인해야 한다.","description":null},"en":{"alt":"A man in a blue rain jacket stands beside a car, looking at a flooded street as water rushes into a drain.","caption":"The forecast cone does not show flood risk, which requires a separate forecast.","description":null},"ja":{"alt":"青い雨具の男性が車のそばに立ち、冠水した道路と排水口に流れ込む水を見つめる。","caption":"予報円錐は浸水リスクを示さないため、別の予報を確認する必要がある。","description":null},"es":{"alt":"Un hombre con impermeable azul observa junto a un coche una calle inundada y el agua que entra en un desagüe.","caption":"El cono de pronóstico no indica el riesgo de inundación; hay que consultar un pronóstico aparte.","description":null},"id":{"alt":"Pria berjas hujan biru berdiri di samping mobil, memandang jalan banjir dan air yang mengalir ke saluran.","caption":"Kerucut prakiraan tidak menunjukkan risiko banjir, sehingga perlu memeriksa prakiraan terpisah.","description":null},"pt":{"alt":"Um homem de capa de chuva azul observa, ao lado de um carro, uma rua alagada e a água entrando no bueiro.","caption":"O cone de previsão não indica o risco de inundação; é preciso consultar uma previsão específica.","description":null},"zh-hant":{"alt":"穿藍色雨衣的男子站在車旁，望向淹水的道路與湧入排水口的水流。","caption":"預報錐體不顯示淹水風險，須另行查閱相關預報。","description":null},"de":{"alt":"Ein Mann in blauer Regenjacke steht neben einem Auto und blickt auf eine überflutete Straße und abfließendes Wasser.","caption":"Der Vorhersagekegel zeigt kein Überschwemmungsrisiko; dafür ist eine gesonderte Prognose nötig.","description":null}}}],"published_at":"2026-10-20T11:57:10+09:00","updated_at":"2026-10-20T11:57:10+09:00","license":"cc_by","translation_status":"reviewed","available_locales":["ko","en","ja","es"],"data_locales":["ko","en","ja","es","id","pt","zh-hant","de"],"url":"https://injoys.com/en/articles/hurricane-forecast-cone-2026-inland-warnings"}