Bitcoin plunges, $87,000 level threatened... Is now the time to buy?

bitcoin fell to $131,365,000 (-3.76%) overnight, threatening to break the $87,000 support level. Ethereum followed suit, falling to $4,326,000 (-4.08%), sending the entire crypto market into a state of extreme panic. However, paradoxically, technical indicators are signaling the entry of oversold territory, and historically, such periods of extreme fear have been a precursor to the formation of medium-term bottoms. The current buy recommendation score is -0.74, suggesting a cautious approach.

the main drivers of this decline are the continued hawkishness of the Federal Reserve (Fed), massive outflows of over $2.3 trillion from ETFs, and aggressive profit-taking by early Bitcoin holders. While the market has clear short-term bearish signals with the entry of a dead cross, energy is building up for a major rebound, with the RSI falling to the 29 level and the Bollinger Bands showing squeezes at historically high levels.

current market conditions as seen by the Upbit price

asof 07:00 on November 21, 2025, Bitcoin was trading at 131,365,000 KRW onUpbit, down 3.76%from the previous day. This is roughly $87,000 USD, the lowest price in the last seven months, and a steep drop of over 30% from its all-time high of $126,000 in October.

ethereum continues to weaken, with an even bigger drop than Bitcoin at $4,326,000 (-4.08%). it's down 28% from its early November highs, and the weakness is evident across the major coins. upbit's 24-hour trading volume is around $2.65 billion, a plunge of 80% from its December 2024 peak of $9 billion. the kimchi premium has also eroded as South Korean investors have moved out of crypto and into the stock market in droves.

ripple (XRP) has shown that interest from Korean investors remains high, with $3.58 billion in trading volume on Upbit. Overall, however, the major altcoins have suffered deeper declines than Bitcoin, and the absence of an altseason has lasted for more than four years.

buy recommendation score analysis - time to take a wait-and-see approach

currently, the crypto market has a Buy Recommendation Score of -0.74 (as of 11/21/2025 05:40), which is in the neutral to bearish range. this means that a cautious approach is required rather than an immediate buy.

recent hourly trend of the buy recommendation score:

hour buy Recommendation Score change meaning 11/20 22:40 +0.12 mildly bullish short-term bounce attempt 11/21 00:40 -0.31 turned neutral upside momentum weakening 11/21 02:40 -0.58 bearish Entry increased selling pressure 11/21 04:40 -0.68 bearishness intensifies downtrend continues nov 21 05:40 -0.74 bearishness widens cautious watch required

the score has taken a distinct bearish turn in the last 8 hours , falling 0.12 pointsfrom +0. 86to -0.74, indicating that the intraday bounce attempt failed and additional selling pressure came in during Asian hours. generally speaking, a drop in the Buy Recommendation Score below -1.0 is interpreted as fear selling and above +1.0 as greed buying.

the current score of -0.74 is a short-term bearish signal, but it is not in extreme fear territory, suggesting that there is still room for further downside. investors are advised to prepare a split-buy strategy in case of a decline below -1.0.

fundamental analysis - a perfect storm of bad news

fed hawkishness triggered the decline

the minutes of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meetingreleased on November 19th were the direct trigger for the plunge, with the minutes mentioning the "need to keep interest rates elevated for a longer period of time," causing the probability of a December rate cut to plummet below 50%. Risky cryptocurrencies reacted immediately, with Bitcoin plunging from $93,000 to $86,600 in a matter of seconds.

in the U.S. bond market, long-term interest rates rose, exacerbating liquidity pressures, and the Nasdaq fell 1.21%, weighing on tech stocks across the board, especially big tech stocks such as Nvidia (-2.81%), Amazon (-4.43%), and Microsoft (-2.7%), amplifying fears of an AI bubble.

Massive ETF outflows weigh on the market

bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $2.3 billion to $3 billion in November. This is the worst monthly performance since the launch of the U.S. ETF. BlackRock IBIT saw its largest outflow ever on November 18, with $5.23 billion in outflows on that day alone, marking the fifth consecutive day of outflows.

fidelity FBTC also experienced outflows of $1.33 billion in mid-November and $120 million in consecutive days. With the average purchase price of an ETF estimated at $90,146, the current price is around $87,000, suggesting that most ETF investors are defensively positioning themselves near breakeven. there was a brief attempt to rebound on Nov. 19 with $7.47 billion in inflows, but it didn't last.

massive early holder selling increases supply

2025 is on track to be the largest year of selling activity by early Bitcoin holders in history. In early November, Satoshi Era Whale sold all of his 15-year holdings worth $1.5 billion in Bitcoin, while Owen Gunden, the world's eighth largest holder, liquidated 11,000 BTC over the past month. He finally exited the market entirely on November 20, transferring 2,499 BTC to Kraken.

on-chain data shows that 417,000 BTC was distributed from long-term holders in the month of November. Holding addresses of 3-10 years moved an average of over 45,000 BTC per day, the highest level since February 2021. CryptoQuant CEO analyzed that "a structural shift is underway, with early holders transferring Bitcoin to traditional financial investors."

metaPlanet's contrarian buying spree and crypto-related stocks weakening

amidst the turmoil , Japanese company Metaplanethas been aggressively buying Bitcoin, announcing a $135 million preferred stock offering on November 20th. the company now holds 30,823 BTC, making it the fourth largest corporate holder in the world, with an average purchase price of $107,912, and maintains a goal of holding 210,000 BTC by 2027, even though it is currently at a 19.33% valuation loss.

meanwhile, crypto-related stocks have plummeted. strategy (formerly Microstrategy) fell 6% on November 14, plunging 33% from its peak, while Coinbase fell 1%. mining company BMNR plunged 24% in a week to $30.95. In particular, Circle, which held its IPO in November, shocked investors by collapsing from its $299 IPO price to $82.

market sentiment is in a state of extreme fear

the Fear & Greed Indexhit a low of10 on November 15, its lowest level since February 27. It remains in a state of "Extreme Fear" today, fluctuating between 11 and 15 points. Historically, when the index is below 10, the median 30-day return is only 2.1%, and only 63% of the time does it post a positive return, meaning an immediate rebound is unlikely.

the search term "bitcoin crash" has spiked 1,550% on Google Trends, and social media discussion is dominated by negativity. However, some analysts have a contrarian view that "extreme fear is paradoxically a buying opportunity".

technical analysis - oversold signals and accumulating rebound energy

RSI enters extreme oversold zone

bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI)has entered a severely oversold zonebetween 29.17 and 34.935. Typically, RSIs below 30 have historically signaled a rebound. What's even more interesting is that we are seeing a Hidden Bullish Divergence. while the price is falling, the RSI is trending upwards, suggesting that selling pressure is weakening.

ethereum's RSI is showing moderate buying momentum on the daily chart. It maintains a relatively healthy technical structure compared to Bitcoin, which could lead to stronger gains on a Bitcoin bounce.

MACD continues to signal strong bearishness

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) ranged from -330 to -1,219.9,indicating strong bearish momentum. the histogram shows a bearish crossover persisting at -906.31, generating a clear sell signal. However, there are also signs of weakening momentum along with an oversold RSI, which could be an early sign of a trend reversal.

ethereum is showing signs of a near-term recovery with a bearish daily MACD of -164.75 to -158.28, but a positive histogram (+76.72) on the 1-hour chart. This could be a bounce trading opportunity for short-term traders.

bollinger Bands historical squeeze - a big move is imminent

bitcoin's Bollinger Bands are currently at their highest historical squeeze (contraction) on a monthly chart as of November 2025. The price is currently trading near the lower band at $89,609 (0.0915 position), with the middle band in the $93,000-$95,000 range.

a Bollinger band squeeze is a sign that a large price change is imminent after a period of extremely low volatility. historically, 7 out of 9 times after such an extreme squeeze, it has led to an upside breakout. This means that the market is currently at a critical point for directional decisions.

deadcross entry, but in this cycle it signaled a low

on November 16, 2025, Bitcoin officially entered a dead cross: the 50-day moving average ($96,964) crossed below the 200-day moving average ($101,363), triggering a traditional bearish signal. Currently, Bitcoin is trading below the 20-day ($95,773), 50-day, 100-day ($99,110), and 200-day moving averages, so the short-term bearish structure is clear.

however, in this cycle, the dead cross has paradoxically acted as a low signal. the previous three dead crosses, which occurred in September 2023, August 2024, and April 2025, all led to strong rebounds after the formation of local lows. This shows that market context should be considered alongside technical indicators and not judged solely by them.

ethereum, in contrast, remains structurally bullish , trading above all major moving averages (20/50/100/200 days). This suggests that Ethereum may lead the rebound before Bitcoin.

fateful bifurcation at the Fibonacci Golden Level

bitcoin is currently testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $94,253. this level marks the 61.8% retracement of the rise from the 2024 low of $74,508 to the 2025 high of $126,299, which is historically referred to as the "Golden Level" and is an area of strong buying interest.

key support and resistance levels:

• strong support: $94,253 (61.8% Fibonacci), $89,270, $86,000-$87,000
• immediate resistance: $96,900 to $103,000
• strong resistance: $100,500 (psychological), $107,000 (previous support turning into resistance)

on-chain analysis - strategic moves of the whales

volume analysis - Bitcoin rushes to exchanges

spot selling pressure spikedin mid-November, with 15,924 BTC flowing into centralized exchanges. Binance in particular has seen inflows of over 6,000 BTC per day since October, pushing exchange holdings above 580,000 BTC. This is a level historically associated with high selling pressure.

Network-wide Net Exchange Flows reached 5,000 BTC, the highest selling pressure since Bitcoin fell below $110,000. On November 6, ETH trading volume spiked to 539,742, a 145% increase over the 24-hour average. Bitcoin also recorded a 24-hour trading volume of between $8.7 billion and $9.9 billion.

upbit was an exception, with 24-hour trading volume of $2.65 billion, down 80% from $9 billion in December 2024. this is the result of South Korean investors moving out of crypto and into the stock market, where the KOSPI is up over 70% annually. Given that South Korea has traditionally been the "last buyer of altcoins," this represents a weakening of the last line of support for the global crypto market.

whale behavior - a tug of war between accumulation and distribution

the behavior of the whales is split. addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC added more than 45,000 BTC in November, marking the second largest weekly accumulation of 2025. The number of wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC has increased by 2.2% in the last four months, Small holders (less than 1,000 BTC) are also in a firm accumulation mode.

on the other hand, very large holders (10,000 BTC and above) have been selling for three consecutive months since August. The whale Owen Gunden deposited 2,401 BTC into Kraken on November 13, and transferred a total of 6,003 BTC to the exchange over three weeks.

long-term holders take profits and new hands absorb them

the supply of long-term holders (155+ days)reachedan all-time high of 14M+ BTC. However, profit-taking is underway, with 417,000 BTC distributed in the month of November. The Liveliness metric reached 0.89, the highest since 2018, indicating aggressive profit taking by early adopters.

interestingly, the Vaulted Supply decreased from 7.97M BTC in early 2024 to 7.32M BTC in mid-2025, which means 650,000 BTC came to market. Nevertheless, short-term holders hold less than 4M BTC, suggesting that institutional investors and new whales absorbed most of the selling.

According toHODL Waves analysis, more than 70% of the total supply has not moved in over a year, which is a record high, showing that buyers in January-March 2025 are holding on despite the new highs. the current state of affairs is assessed as a sustainable healthy allocation level rather than a cycle top signal.

miners shift from selling to accumulating

the behavior of miners is also noteworthy. miner holdingshave been in net selling mode for nearly a year , declining from 1 .99M BTC at the beginning of 2025 to 1.90M BTC today. In early November, minerssold $172M worth of BTC, the largest outflow in nearly six weeks.

however, in late November, miners switched from being net sellers to net accumulators, adding 777 BTC in the last 7 days, signaling that the selling pressure is easing. mining difficulty increased by 3% in the last two weeks, and hashrate surged 64% in Q3, from 36.9 to 60.4 exahash/second, suggesting that network security is improving and miners remain optimistic about the long-term outlook.

Market Health by Realized Profit/Loss Metrics

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) confirms a clear increase in profit realization, especially after the rally from $74,000-$75,000 to over $100,000, where massive arbitrage took place. The MVRV Z-Score has entered a historically important range, indicating high profit-taking by long-term holders.

nevertheless, 71% of the total supply is still in profit, and unrealized losses are only 3.1% of the market cap. The NVT Score is at a "golden-cross" level of 1.51, suggesting that valuation is being driven by real trading activity rather than speculative enthusiasm. this supports that the current correction is at healthy levels and is a normal retracement, not a bubble burst.

analyzing investor sentiment and derivatives markets

fear and Greed Index Extreme Fear, but Signs of Opportunity

the Fearand Greed Indexentered the Extreme Fear zoneon November 15, hitting a reading of 10. It is currently still moving in the 11-15 range, which is the lowest level since February 27th. after the index dropped below 20 in February, Bitcoin fell an additional 25% to $75,000 within a month.

historically, when the index is below 10, the median 30-day return is only 2.1%, with positive returns 63% of the time, meaning a further correction is more likely than an immediate bounce. but paradoxically, these periods of extreme fear have been accumulation opportunities for calm long-term investors.

on social media, the search term "bitcoin crash" has spiked 1,550%, with negative discussion dominating. Santiment reported a "sharp increase in negative discussion about Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple," but some influencers are interpreting this as a counter-invention opportunity.

funding rate neutralization - overheating liquidation complete

theFunding Ratehas falleninto a neutral to bearishrange, as many of the overheated long positions from the October surge have been liquidated, normalizing the Funding Rate. The current 24 hour long/short ratio isnearly balanced at 48.46% long / 51.54%short, with a slight short edge.

binance is 47.5% long / 52.5% short, Bybit is 47.59% long / 52.41% short, and Gate.io is the only one with a bullish bias at 51.31% long. the funding ratio history shows a high positive funding ratio in early November due to overheated long positions, but a sharp correction after November 8 shifted the ratio to a neutral to slightly negative range.

this suggests that the liquidation of excessive leverage has been completed and the risk of further large forced liquidations has been reduced. currently, short position holders are paying small amounts to longs, showing that the market is in a state of equilibrium with no certainty of direction.

over $1 trillion in leveraged liquidations

on November 8 alone, $7.13 billion in liquidationsoccurred, with longs accounting for 93% of the liquidations, showing an extreme imbalance of 1,342%. further large-scale liquidations followed on November 11-12, with $1.1 billion in ETF net outflows, and by mid-November, more than $1 billion had been liquidated cumulatively. over $2.4 billion of long positions in Bitcoin alone and over $169 billion in Ethereum were forced to liquidate.

current liquidation risk levels:

• break below $88,000: Focused liquidation of approximately $5.63 billion ($750 billion) of longs
• abreak above $91,000: ~$7.45 billion (KRW 1 trillion) in short liquidation

the current Bitcoin price is in a two-way liquidation concentration zone. caution is advised due to the high probability of a liquidation cascade if volatility increases. additional pockets of liquidity also exist between $98,500 and $101,300, which could trigger a short liquidation waterfall on a spike.

options Market - Increased institutional investment and surging demand for puts

bitcoin options open interest (OI) reached near record levelsat $108 billion,up 66% from $65 billion in May, and a structural shift has occurred, with options OI exceeding futures OI ($68 billion) by $40 billion, signaling increased market maturity and sophisticated hedging activity driven by institutional investors.

notably, BlackRock IBIT optionshave emerged as the largest platform, overtaking Deribit since its November 2024 launch. In CME Bitcoin November expiration options, calls dominate with 1,149 contracts of put OI and 3,844 contracts of call OI, but the put/call premium ratio isextreme at 6.84. the put premium is $31 million and the call premium is $4.5 million, showing that investors are actively protecting the downside.

On Deribit, calls still dominate, with call OI of $23 billion and put OI of $13.9 billion, but put demand is growing rapidly. In IBIT November expiry options, the largest OI is concentrated at the $60-70 strike, with large call positions at $70 and $80, creating a "call wall" effect.

futures Market - Open Interest Down 25%

open interest in futures is currently $68 billion, down $23 billion (25%) from the October peak of $91 billion. The October liquidation event wiped out over $20 billion of leverage, indicating that the market has unwound from overheating.

futures premiums reached high levels during the October breakout above $100,000, but the November decline caused premiums to contract sharply and are now in neutral territory. the long/short ratio on major exchanges is nearly balanced, indicating a move from over-optimism to a cautious balance.

the phenomenon of options OI exceeding futures OIis a very important structural change: it indicates that market participants are favoring hedging and volatility trading (options) over directional bets (futures), suggesting a growing market maturity. historically, this structure tends to lead to large moves after a volatility compression.

market Outlook - Finding Opportunity in Crisis

short-term outlook (next 2 weeks) - Volatility persists, directional decision imminent

we expectan intense tug-of-war in the $89,000-$95,000 range in the near term. the Fibonacci 61.8% golden level at $94,253 is a key juncture, and whether it holds will determine the future trend.

bullish scenario (40% probability): if the $94,253 support holds and an oversold RSI bounce occurs, a recovery to the $96,900-103,000 range is possible. if the historical squeeze of Bollinger Bands leads to a breakout to the upside, the pair could quickly rise to the $100,500 psychological resistance. The probability of this scenario increases if ETF inflows resume and the Fed hints at a possible December rate cut.

bearish scenario (35% probability): a break below $89,270 could lead to a sharp decline. 5.a break of $88,000 with a concentration of $6.3 billion in long liquidations could accelerate the plunge with cascading liquidations. continued macroeconomic uncertainty and accelerating ETF outflows could trigger this scenario.

sideways scenario (25% probability): sideways trading in the $88,000-$98,000 range continues for several weeks, with a directional breakout taking time. given the current funding rate neutralization and long/short balance, this scenario is quite possible.

medium-term outlook (through year-end) - $100,000 recovery is key

the probability of Bitcoin regaining $100,000 by the end of the year is estimated to be around 30%. the options market currently rates the probability of a year-end close below $90,000 at 50% and above $100,000 at 30%.

positive factors:

• extreme fear has historically been a medium-term bottom signal
• miners shift from selling to accumulating, easing supply pressure
• aggressive accumulation by whales (added 45,000 BTC in November)
• institutional infrastructure maturing (options OI at all-time high)
• network fundamentals strengthened (hashrate surged 64%)
• ethereum Fusaka upgrade (expected in December) - 8x increase in data processing capacity
• backdoor buyouts from Metaplanet and others

negatives:

• Fed hawkishness continues (44% chance of a December rate cut)
• ETF outflows totaled $3 trillion in November
• long-term holders continue to distribute (417,000 BTC)
• dead cross confirmed and all moving averages under pressure
• tech bubble concerns (AI stocks fall in tandem)
• korean investor outflows weaken final support

key variables and risk factors

key variables to monitor:

1. Fed December FOMC meeting (December 17-18): rate cut or not will determine market direction
2. ETF daily flows: especially BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC inflows and outflows
3. fibonacci level at $94,253: Breakdown of this level could trigger panic selling
4. liquidation cluster at $88,000: Risk of cascading liquidations if broken out of
5. miner behavior: continued net accumulation vs. resumption of selling
6. macroeconomic indicators: inflation, unemployment, and GDP growth
7. ethereum Fusaka upgrade: Altcoin market-wide favorable if successful

key risks:

• liquidity crisis: Year-end institutional fund withdrawals could cause liquidity to plummet
• regulatory risk: further regulation by the US SEC
• leveraged firms forced to sell: collateralization ratio declines, leading to possible sell-offs by Strategy and others
• geopolitical uncertainty: Middle East situation, US-China conflict worsens
• black Swans: Hacking of major exchanges, depegging of major stablecoins, etc

suggested investment strategies

conservative investors (risk-averse):

• recommend a wait-and-see or minimal allocation at this point in time
• buy in small increments in the $86,000 to $89,000 range
• allocate only 2-3% of your portfolio
• set a stop loss below $85,000

neutral Investor (Balanced):

• buy first installment in the $94,000 to $96,000 range (30% of total volume)
• buy second installment between $89,000 and $91,000 (40%)
• final purchase at $86,000 to $87,000 (30%)
• target price of $103,000 for the first installment and $110,000 for the second installment
• allocate 5-10% of portfolio

aggressive investor (risk-averse):

• utilize extreme fear as a contrarian buying opportunity
• immediate 50% entry at current price, additional 50% entry at $86,000
• only use leverage up to 2x (to account for liquidation risk)
• target price of $110,000 to $120,000
• allocate 10-20% of your portfolio

ethereum strategy:

• relatively sound technical structure compared to Bitcoin
• buy in the $3,400-$3,500 range, with an additional buy above $3,057
• Medium-term upside likely due to Fusaka upgrade expectations
• target price $3,900 in the first round, $4,200 to $4,350 in the second round

risk management principles:

1. never go full position: stockpile cash in case of further decline
2. strict stop losses: eliminate emotional judgment, execute mechanical stops
3. minimize leverage: leverage is risky in the current liquidation cluster
4. diversify your portfolio: allocate Bitcoin, Ethereum, and cash appropriately
5. utilize options hedging: protect downside with puts if you can afford it

closing Thoughts - Finding Opportunity in the Fear

on November 21, 2025, the cryptocurrency market is in the midst of extreme fear and uncertainty. bitcoin at $131,365,000 (-3.76%), Ethereum at $4,326,000 (-4.08%), Buy Recommendation Score of -0.74, Fear and Greed Index of 10-15... all the indicators are scaring investors.

but crypto market history has repeatedly proven that extreme fear is the best buying opportunity. The extreme oversold RSI of 29, the historic squeeze of the Bollinger Bands, and the Fibonacci 61.8% golden level test all suggest that energy is building up for a major bounce. with over $1 billion in deleveraging completed and funding costs neutralized, the risk of a further plunge has been largely removed.

on-chain data shows that the market is maturing, with whales buying an additional 45,000 BTC in November alone, miners switching from selling to accumulating, and options open interest hitting an all-time high. companies like Metaplanet are confident in Bitcoin's long-term value, raising an additional $135 million despite a 19% valuation loss.

of course, further declines cannot be ruled out in the short term: the Fed's hawkish stance, continued ETF outflows, and long-term holder distribution pressures remain headwinds. a collapse of $89,270 could lead to $86,000, and a worst-case scenario of $73,000. but historically, such extreme corrections have set the stage for new bull cycles.

now is the time to take emotion out of the equation and act on cold analysis. it's dangerous to panic sell out of fear, but it's also dangerous to recklessly go all-in. you should manage risk with a split-buy strategy, set clear stop-losses, and diversify your portfolio appropriately.

carefully monitor whether the $94,253 Fibonacci Golden Level holds, whether ETF flows reverse, and how the Fed's December decision comes out. history has rewarded those who have the courage to invest in the midst of extreme fear, but that courage must be based on thorough analysis and risk management.

the crypto market will always be volatile. but that volatility creates opportunity. this moment could be the turning point that takes your portfolio to the next level. don't let fear rule you, arm yourself with data and analysis, and make smart decisions.