market Overview and Fundamental Analysis
bitcoin price regains the $100,000 mark to start November. as of 9:00 AM Uptime on November 1, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading around $164 million,up +0.05% from the previous day. ethereum (ETH) is up +0.19% to $5.78 million (circa $3,850) and Ripple (XRP) is up +1.62% to $3,762, reclaiming the fourth spot in market capitalization. the crypto market is off to a modestlystrong start on the first day of November, with major altcoins showing strong gains, including Solana (SOL), up +0.32% to 281,200 KRW.
in the month of October, Bitcoin dropped about 7%, marking the first time in sevenyears since 2018 that the crypto market ended themonth in the red. The"Uptober" jinx, which has been characterized by a bull market every October, was broken this year. in particular, BTC price plunged below $100,000 at one point in late October, but fortunately, the price quickly rebounded as bargain huntersentered the market, and is now back above the $100,000 mark.
the global macro environment has also become increasingly favorable. in the U.S. equity markets, we saw a rebound in tech stocks, with the Nasdaq Composite surging +1.4% overnight, and risk appetite improved as the U.S. 10-year Treasury rate fell to 4.2%. expectations of monetary policy easing were also boosted by speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut interest rates as soon as March next year. these macro tailwinds have spilled over into the crypto market, leading some to believe that November will see a rebound in momentum with a return of liquidity. indeed, optimism is also rearing its head again, with one Wall Street strategist stating that "Bitcoin could have more upside than gold in a short-term rally."
on the fundamental front, there are mixed signals and concerns. institutional investors continue to increase their participation in the market, and M&A news in the crypto space has been active, with global exchange giant Coinbase pursuing a $2.8 trillionacquisition of a British fintech firm and another stablecoin startup. in addition, the Venezuelan government has launched the world's first blockchain-based national banking network, paving the way for banks to directly handle Bitcoin and other crypto assets. ripple (XRP) has been in the spotlight since the conclusion of the U.S. court case, highlighting its technological development and use cases, and was recently described by Forbes as"a cryptocurrency in a whole new league," while TRON is expanding its practical use by integrating with payment systems to reduce transaction speeds to a minute. the adoption of cryptocurrencies by global corporations and governments, as well as the technological advancements in altcoins, are positive for the long-term fundamentals of the crypto market.
however, there are risks to consider. in October, we saw some institutional outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, with about KRW 640 billion in outflowsin the wake of the US-China conflict. in the U.S., a bank specializing in cryptocurrencies lost its bid for Fed master account approval and lost on appeal, reaffirming the reality that regulatory barriers remain high. it has even been suggested that quantum computer advances could threaten the current Bitcoin cryptographic algorithm, highlighting the need for the industry to respond technologically. in addition, rumors of large-scale selling by the world's largest asset managers (and spot selling by some institutions) have shocked the market, and the proliferation of stablecoin types has led to fragmented market liquidity anduser confusion. these factors are worth keeping an eye on as they could be potential obstacles to the bull market in the future.
technical Analysis (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, etc.)
throughout the recent price correction and bounce, key technical indicators have been showing the following conditions
RSI (Relative Strength Index): on a daily basis, the RSI is currently hovering around 50,which is a neutral level. during the price plunge in late October, the RSI dropped to 30 at one point, approaching oversoldlevels, but since the rebound, the indicator has risen back to around 50, which is balanced and neither overheated nor bearish. this could be interpreted as an energy charge for further gains.
MACD: The MACD indicator showed bearish momentum with a dead crossduring the recent downtrend. however, the MACD histogram bars are now gradually shrinking as the downward momentum is weakening. if the price continues to move higher, there is a possibility of a golden cross, where the MACD line breaks through the signal line from below to above, sooner or later. overall, the MACD is recovering from bearish to neutral.
bollinger Bands: The recent volatility has caused the Bollinger Bands to widen at one point, but they are now somewhat relaxed. bitcoin's price dropped enough to break the lower band during the plunge, but it has since rebounded and is back near the middle line. currently, the price is stabilizing near the 20-day moving averageand hasn't moved much above or below the band. this suggests that volatility has temporarily calmed down.
moving average trend: The price of Bitcoin remains above the50-day moving average, which is the medium-term trend, and the 200-day moving average, which is the long-term trend. the correction briefly pushed the price slightly below the 50-day moving average, but it quickly recovered. currently, the 50-day moving average is hovering around the low $100,000s, acting as short-term support, while the 200-day moving average is well below it, in the tens of thousands of dollars, so the long-term uptrend remains strong. In other words, we're looking at a short-term correction with a valid uptrend in the big picture.
on-chain analysis
on-chain data shows that the network fundamentals remained solidduring the recent correction. the number of large transfers of $100,000 or more, which are indicative of large whales, increased month-over-month, suggesting that big money investors were buying on price dips. in fact, even during the October plunge, we didn't see a massive movement of long-term holders moving their coins to exchanges. the share of bitcoin that hasn't moved in over a year hasn't changed much, suggesting that core holders are un wavering. this shows that the market is supported by a strong holder basedespite short-term volatility.
network utilization metrics are also good. the number of active addresses and on-chain transaction volume have remained stable or increased slightly month-over-month. bitcoin mining hashrate has also been steadily rising and is at an all-time high, indicating that miners are placing their long-term trust in the network as it continues to strengthen its security. in short, on-chain, signs of sustained network activity and robust long-term demand prevail over signs of investor exodus. these on-chain indicators support the notion that the recent price decline was a temporary correction driven by speculative short-term volumes, and has not led to an undermining of long-term fundamentals.
investor Sentiment and Derivatives Trends
it's also worth looking at indicators of investor sentiment and derivatives market flows:
fear-Greed Index: the crypto Fear-Greed Indexis currently in the low 40s, reflecting slightly subduedsentiment, close tothe "Fear" zone on the index. after the October plunge, the index dipped into the low 30s at one point, suggesting extreme fear, but the recent rebound has seen the index slowly creep up and approach neutral. the index is based on a scale of 0 to extreme fear and 100 to extreme greed, and the current reading (40-50) shows that investors have not yet returned to full optimism. further price gains and favorable news inflows will be needed to fully restore confidence.
funding Rate: bitcoin perpetual futures funding rateson major exchanges are currently positive (paying for long positions) at around **+0.0100%. ethereum's funding rate is also favorable at **+0.0062%. this means that the longshave a slight edge over the shortsand are paying a bit, indicating that market participants are betting more on the upside overall. however, there are a fewaltcoins with negativefunding rates, such as BNB at -0.0079% and BCH at -0.0104%, so there is some variation in supply and demand across coins. overall, the current funding rate levels are not too skewed and are not considered to be overheated on either the long or short side.
open Interest(OI) and Leverage: Open interest (OI ) in the futures market has been steadily increasing during the recent bull run. currently, global BTC futures OI is estimated to be near all-time highs, indicating a large accumulation of leveraged positions in the market. while the accumulation of leveraged positions can add momentumto an upswing, it also risks triggering speculative liquidationson the downside, which can increase volatility. in fact, the October bear market saw a cascade of large-scale long position closures that extended the drop. analysts warn that a breakdown of certain key support levels could trigger position liquidations of around $3 billion, which is indicative of the current level of leverage buildup. investors should watch for signs of leverage overheatingby keeping an eye on OI growth and liquidation paths.
option Put/Call Ratio: Sentiment can also be read in the options market. currently, the put/call open interest ratiofor Bitcoin options is estimated to be below 1.0, meaning that the open interest in call options (bets to go up) is greater than the open interest in put options (bets to go down). this shows that investors are actively buying call optionsin anticipation of future price increases. this low put/call ratio reflects the bullish sentimentin the market, but it also suggests that a short-term correction could come if the optimism becomes excessive. therefore, traders should be mindful of the potential for volatility in the options market around future expiries.
another indicator of domestic investors' sentiment is the kimchi premium, which has been observed to be 2-3% higher than overseas BTC prices at times during the recent volatile market. this is interpreted as a reflection of the FOMO(Fear of Missing Out) sentiment of retail investors in Korea. while the premiums have now stabilized at less than 1%, it is important to note that any further premium spikes could be a sign of overheating.
composite Buy Recommendation Score and Strategies
below is the change in the Buy Recommendation Score over the last 24 hours by timeframe (scores range from +5 to -5, with higher scores favoring buying and lower scores favoring selling/waiting):
time buy Recommendation Score investment Strategy Opinion ž×-×-ר×-ת 2025-10-31 20:43 -1.67 bearish on the back of a dominance of bad news (wait and see) 2025-11-01 05:42 4.1.67 aggressive buying on strong favorable news 2025-11-01 07:39 1.38 good/bad news mixed, buy cautiously split 2025-11-01 08:41 -1.22 negative Issues Resurface, Wait and See
in the above buy recommendation score evolution, we can see that the previous evening, the score was negative due to negative issues, resulting in a wait-and-seerecommendation, but in the early hours of this morning, when there was a flurry of favorable news, the score spiked to 4.08, indicating a strong buysignal. however, some bad news came out again this morning and the score dropped and is now in the mildly negative range around -1. overall, this is more of a wait-and-seestance, indicating that the market is still unsure of its direction. therefore, in the short term, cautious positioningis preferable to reckless chasing.
while experts are weighing in on the possibility of a Bitcoin bouncein November, they are also warning of the risk of short-term volatility. technically, a breakout above near-term resistance around $110,000 could spark a further upside rally. on the other hand, a breakdown of support in the low-$100,000s could trigger a massive liquidationand a sharp drop, so this price level should be watched closely. november is a historically bullish month, but we've already seen a huge uptick this year, so it's worth keeping an eye on profit-taking volume and macrovariables.
overall, the consensus view is that Bitcoin's long-term uptrend remains valid. however, given the volatility risks that we saw during the October correction, investors should continue to exercise disciplined risk management, such as using split-buy and split-sell strategies and setting stop losses. whilekey indicators are showing signs of improvement, a wait-and-seeapproach may be warranted until a full resumption of the uptrend is confirmed, whilea contrarian approach (buy-the-dip) may also be in order to capitalize on any dips. going forward, if favorable events materialize, such as the resumption of institutional inflows, ETF approval issues, and macroeconomic data, the crypto market could gain further momentum. in the end, we expect the November market to unfold with cautious optimism, and investors will need to remain nimble and responsive to market movements while analyzing the data.