October 2026 Week 3 Investment Events

The key investment issues in the third week of October are semiconductor earnings and U.S. inflation. Check ASML and TSMC for investment plans for 2027 and beyond. In financial companies’ earnings, assess the conditions for financing AI investment. Stock price reactions will depend on how results compare with market expectations.

The figures are based on official announcements from July 15 through October 8, 2026.

Key Announcements in the Third Week of October

Earnings and economic data releases are concentrated from October 13 through 15, 2026. All times below are Korea time. Check earnings release times separately from the start times of earnings calls.

ASML’s announcement date is listed in its quarterly results information. TSMC’s earnings call is posted on its Q3 2026 results page. The economic release dates come from the BLS release calendar and the Census Bureau retail sales schedule.

×

Check how the US September CPI compares with market expectations.

What to Look for in ASML and TSMC Earnings

For both companies, check this quarter’s results alongside long-term investment plans. TSMC is a contract manufacturer that produces semiconductors designed by its customers. ASML supplies lithography equipment used to draw semiconductor circuits.

TSMC Revenue and Capital Spending

TSMC’s monthly revenue is an early indicator of the scale of demand. Revenue in September 2026 rose 54.6% from the same month a year earlier. Monthly revenue alone, however, cannot establish quarterly net income. The source is the September revenue report released on October 8.

Check the following on the earnings call.

• Customer demand: Check whether orders from AI customers such as NVIDIA are continuing.
• CoWoS: Check when advanced packaging capacity will expand.
• Capital spending: Check whether the planned amount for factories and equipment has changed.
• Profitability: Assess whether revenue growth is leading to higher profit margins.

CoWoS is a technology that connects multiple semiconductors in a single package. It is used to connect AI accelerators and high-bandwidth memory. Not all AI semiconductors use the same packaging technology. A description of the technology is available in TSMC’s advanced packaging information.

ASML Orders and Production Capacity

For ASML, check for changes in new orders and equipment supply plans. EUV is a technology that uses extreme ultraviolet light to draw fine semiconductor circuits. High-NA EUV is next-generation equipment that provides higher resolution.

In its July announcement, ASML planned to expand EUV production capacity in 2027. It described a further expansion in 2028 as under consideration. The distinction between a plan and something under consideration comes from its Q2 2026 results announcement.

Construction of a new campus is another factor in assessing production capacity. ASML announced on September 8, 2026, that construction of the new campus had begun. Breaking ground does not immediately increase equipment shipments. Check progress in the new campus announcement.

Calculation Example: Checking TSMC’s Quarterly Revenue

TSMC’s third-quarter revenue can be checked by adding revenue from July through September. A simple average of the monthly growth rates may differ from the quarterly growth rate. Start by adding the revenue amounts.

The total is the sum of figures in TSMC’s monthly revenue table. To calculate year-over-year growth, compare it with the total for the same period in 2025. To compare it with the company’s outlook in dollars, use a consistent exchange rate basis.

The formula for quarterly growth is:

Year-over-year revenue growth = (current-year Q3 revenue total ÷ previous-year Q3 revenue total - 1) × 100%

U.S. Financial Companies and AI Financing

Financial companies’ earnings show how money is flowing into AI infrastructure investment. Data centers need funding for construction and equipment purchases. Financing methods include corporate bonds and loans. The related financing structures are described in BlackRock’s explanation of data center financing.

A bank’s net interest income is the interest it receives minus the interest it pays. When interest rates rise, interest income from loans may increase. Deposit interest costs and the burden of bad loans may also rise.

BlackRock is an asset manager, so it is difficult to assess it by the same standards as a bank. Do not interpret growth in banks’ total lending as growth in AI lending. Check the earnings materials to see whether AI-related amounts were disclosed separately.

The investor relations pages of the respective companies are the sources for their announcement schedules. (Verified figures for Q3 2026 earnings announcement dates: JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup on October 13, 2026; Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Blac · source jpmorganchase.com · checked 2026-10-14) For companies reporting on October 13 (United States), check the earnings materials already released. For those reporting on October 14 (United States), review both the results and the earnings call Q&A.

How to Interpret U.S. CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales

For U.S. inflation, first check how the figures compare with expectations. CPI measures changes in the prices of goods and services consumers buy. Core CPI excludes food and energy.

According to the BLS, core CPI in August 2026 rose 2.4% from a year earlier. Its seasonally adjusted month-over-month increase was 0.3%. Keep these figures separate from expectations for September. The source is the BLS August 2026 CPI release.

Core CPI of 2.5% year over year would not guarantee a rise in stock prices. What matters is whether it exceeds market expectations immediately before the release. Also check whether the month-over-month rate has accelerated.

Retail sales are not a measure of real consumption adjusted for inflation. Higher sales do not necessarily mean a higher volume of goods sold. Likewise, a rise in PPI does not automatically mean CPI will rise by the same amount.

Connection to the October FOMC Meeting

The October FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 27 through 28, 2026, U.S. local time. The dates are listed on the Federal Reserve’s official calendar. These inflation figures are one input for decisions ahead of the meeting.

The Federal Reserve’s long-term inflation target is based on the PCE price index. No specific core CPI figure is an official threshold for interest rate decisions. The Fed also considers employment and other economic conditions alongside inflation. The source is the Federal Reserve’s explanation of its inflation target.

Comparing Conditions: When Earnings and Interest Rates Move in Opposite Directions

Improving earnings and rising interest rates can pull stock prices in different directions. The table below provides a conditional analysis to help interpret the announcements afterward. It does not predict the direction of stock prices.

Assess demand for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix by product. For Korean materials, parts, and equipment companies, what matters is whether customers actually place orders. An increase in global capital spending does not mean higher revenue for every supplier.

It is also difficult to explain foreign investors’ trading solely through U.S. Treasury yields. Exchange rates and corporate earnings forecasts also play a role. Keep actual trading trends separate from interpretations of their causes.

The Lag Between Investment Announcements and Revenue

AI investment plans must lead to spending and then revenue. This distinction matters when reading semiconductor and financial companies’ announcements together. Treating an announced total as that quarter’s revenue can overstate demand.

This distinction also reduces double-counting of the same investment plan. A customer’s capital spending may include payments to an equipment supplier. Do not add the two announced amounts and count them as separate sources of final demand.

Common Mistakes When Reading Investment Announcements

The most common mistake is treating reported results and estimates as the same kind of number. Company guidance must also be distinguished from final results. Checking the following makes the meaning of each figure clearer.

• Source of estimates: Check whether a research provider and compilation date are given.
• Comparison period: Distinguish year-over-year from month-over-month changes.
• Currency: Do not directly compare revenue in New Taiwan dollars with an outlook in U.S. dollars.
• Bond maturity: Include both the maturity and observation date when citing U.S. Treasury yields.
• Earnings outlook: Do not assume that a company’s increased investment will raise profits for every supplier.
• Stock price reaction: Assess separately whether good results are already reflected in the price.

Simply describing U.S. Treasury yields as being in the 5% range leaves the basis for comparison unclear. Short-term and long-term bonds can trade at different yield levels. Check the latest yield for the relevant maturity before interpreting it.